Daily Temperature and Bacillary Dysentery: Estimated Effects, Attributable Risks, and Future Disease Burden in 316 Chinese Cities

Liu, Zhidong; Tong, Michael; Xiang, Jianjun; Dear, Keith; Wang, Changke; Ma, Wei; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Jiang, Baofa; Bi, Peng

doi:10.1289/ehp5779

Cited by 32 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 43 publications

(62 reference statements)

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“…Measures of attributable risk are an integral part of epidemiological analyses, particularly when aimed at the planning and evaluation of public health interventions [26,27,32]. It was presented in our results that the overall attributable fraction of HFMD incidence due to hot temperatures (39.55%) was significantly higher than that due to cold temperatures (5.23%).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 60%

Daily Mean Temperature and HFMD: Risk Assessment and Attributable Fraction Identification in Ningbo China

Zhang

Lin

Zhang³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) remains a significant public health issue, especially in developing countries. Many studies have reported the association between environmental temperature and HFMD. However, the results are highly heterogeneous in different regions. In addition, there are few studies on the attributable risk of HFMD.Objectives: The study aimed to assess the association between temperature and HFMD incidence and to evaluate the attributable burden of HFMD in Ningbo China.Methods: The research used daily incidence of HFMD from 2014 to 2017 and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to investigate the effects of daily mean temperature (Tmean) on HFMD incidence from lag 0 to 30 days, after controlling potential confounders. The lag effects and cumulative relative risk (CRR) were analyzed. Attributable fraction (AF) of HFMD incidence due to temperature was calculated. Stratified analysis by age and gender were also conducted.Results: The Significant associations between Tmean and HFMD incidence were observed in Ningbo for lag 0-30. Two peaks were observed at both low (5°C -11°C ) and high (16°C -29°C ) temperature scales. For low temperature scale, the highest CRR was 2.22% (95% CI: 1.61-3.07) at 7°C on lag 0-30. For high temperature scale, the highest CRR was 3.54% (95% CI: 2.58-4.88) at 24°C on lag 0-30. The AF of low and high temperature was 5.23% (95% CI: 3.10-7.14) and 39.55% (95% CI: 30.91-45.51), respectively. There was no significant difference between gender- and age-specific AFs, even though the school-age and female children had slightly higher AF values.Conclusions: The result indicates that both high and low temperatures were associated with daily incidence of HFMD, and more burdens were caused by heat in Ningbo.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 60%

Daily Mean Temperature and HFMD: Risk Assessment and Attributable Fraction Identification in Ningbo China

Zhang

Lin

Zhang³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Daily mean relative humidity (RHmean), as potential confounding variables, was modeled as a natural cubic spline (ns) with 3 degrees of freedom. DOW stands for day of the week, which was entered as a categorical variable, and β is the coefficient of DOW [27,[29][30][31].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The modification effect of temperature on the relationship between air pollutants and daily incidence of influenza in Ningbo, China

et al. 2021

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Background Although exposure to air pollution has been linked to many health issues, few studies have quantified the modification effect of temperature on the relationship between air pollutants and daily incidence of influenza in Ningbo, China. Methods The data of daily incidence of influenza and the relevant meteorological data and air pollution data in Ningbo from 2014 to 2017 were retrieved. Low, medium and high temperature layers were stratified by the daily mean temperature with 25th and 75th percentiles. The potential modification effect of temperature on the relationship between air pollutants and daily incidence of influenza in Ningbo was investigated through analyzing the effects of air pollutants stratified by temperature stratum using distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). Stratified analysis by sex and age were also conducted. Results Overall, a 10 μg/m3 increment of O3, PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 could increase the incidence risk of influenza with the cumulative relative risk of 1.028 (95% CI 1.007, 1.050), 1.061 (95% CI 1.004, 1.122), 1.043 (95% CI 1.003, 1.085), and 1.118 (95% CI 1.028, 1.216), respectively. Male and aged 7–17 years were more sensitive to air pollutants. Through the temperature stratification analysis, we found that temperature could modify the impacts of air pollution on daily incidence of influenza with high temperature exacerbating the impact of air pollutants. At high temperature layer, male and the groups aged 0–6 years and 18–64 years were more sensitive to air pollution. Conclusion Temperature modified the relationship between air pollution and daily incidence of influenza and high temperature would exacerbate the effects of air pollutants in Ningbo.

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“…Characteristics of eligible studies Figure 1 shows a ow chart of the literature search and screening process. A total of 27 studies met our inclusion criteria (Cheng et al 2017;D'Souza et al 2008;Dewan et al 2013;Gao et al 2020;Hao et al 2019;Hashizume et al 2008;Hu et al 2019;Li et al 2016;Li et al 2019;Li et al 2014;Li et al 2013;Liu et al 2020;Luque Fernández et al 2009;Qiang et al 2013;Thindwa et al 2019;Traerup et al 2011;Wang et al 2019a;Wang et al 2019b;Wang et al 2021;Wang et al 2019c;Wang et al 2018;Wang et al 2011;Wu et al 2018;Xu et al 2017;Zhang 2019;Zhang et al 2021), with a total population of more than 7.07 million. Among the results of these models, not only some studies report the single-day effect of temperature (17 studies reported on the single-day effect of temperature, and a total of 28 estimates and effect intervals were collected), but some studies report the cumulative effect of temperature over multiple days (16 studies reported on the cumulative effect of temperature, and a total of 30 estimates and effect intervals were collected).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature and Risk of Infectious Diarrhea: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Liang

Sun

2021

Preprint

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There are many studies that have explored the relationship between temperature and the spread of infectious diarrhea (ID), but the results obtained are inconsistent. It is necessary to systematically evaluate the impact of temperature on the incidence of ID. ID is an intestinal infectious disease including cholera, typhoid and paratyphoid fever, bacterial and amebic dysentery, and other infectious diarrhea. This study is based on the PRISMA statement to report this systematic review. We conduct literature searches from CNKI, VIP databases, CBM, PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library and other databases. The number registered in PROSPERO is CRD42021225472. Finally, after searching a total of 4,915 articles in the database and references, a total of 27 studies were included. The number of people involved exceeded 7.07 million. The overall result demonstrated when the temperature rises, there is a significant increase in infectious diarrhea (RRcumulative=1.42, 95%CI:1.07–1.88, RRsingle−day=1.08, 95%CI:1.03–1.14). Subgroup analysis found that the cumulative effect of temperature on the bacillary dysentery group and other diarrhea groups. The result of the single-day effect subgroup analysis was similar to the result of the cumulative effect. And the sensitivity analysis proves that the above results were robust. This systematic review and meta-analysis support that temperature will increase the risk of ID, which is helpful for ID prediction and early warning in the future.

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Daily Temperature and Bacillary Dysentery: Estimated Effects, Attributable Risks, and Future Disease Burden in 316 Chinese Cities

Cited by 32 publications

References 43 publications

Daily Mean Temperature and HFMD: Risk Assessment and Attributable Fraction Identification in Ningbo China

Daily Mean Temperature and HFMD: Risk Assessment and Attributable Fraction Identification in Ningbo China

The modification effect of temperature on the relationship between air pollutants and daily incidence of influenza in Ningbo, China

Temperature and Risk of Infectious Diarrhea: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

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