Daily rainfall intensity and temporal trends in eastern Paraná state – Brazil

Terassi, Paulo Miguel de Bodas; Júnior, Antonio Carlos Oscar; Galvani, Emerson; Oliveira‐Júnior, José Francisco de; Sobral, Bruno Serafini; Biffi, Vítor Hugo Rosa; Góis, Givanildo de

doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101090

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…October was the only month in which the trend showed an increase in rainfall in ID1 (1.42 mm), ID2 (1.25 mm), ID4 (1.42 mm), and ID6 (1.59 mm) (Figure 7), with significance above 90% (Tables S5 and S6-Supplementary Material II). The trend towards an increase in annual rainfall was found for Curitiba and Paranaguá (Paraná) [93] and in other surveys for this sector of the Brazilian territory [91,[94][95][96] and the state of São Paulo [89].…”

Section: Monthly Trends and Rupturessupporting

confidence: 54%

Precipitation Anomalies and Trends Estimated via Satellite Rainfall Products in the Cananeia–Iguape Coastal System, Southeast Region of Brazil

Baratto,

de Bodas Terassi,

de Beserra de Lima

et al. 2024

Climate

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The objective of this research is to select the best orbital sensor for rainfall estimates (monthly and annual scales) and to analyze the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events and their trends and disruptions based on the use of satellite rainfall product data for the Cananeia–Iguape Coastal System (CICS). Data from four satellite rainfall products were used to identify the correspondence with seven points on the surface of the study area. Statistical metrics were used to identify the best satellite rainfall product. After identifying the sensor with the best performance in estimating orbital precipitation, extreme events were identified by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on a one-month (SPI-1), three-month (SPI-3), and twelve-month (SPI-12) scale. Trend and rupture detection in the time series were performed using different statistical techniques (Mann–Kendall, Pettitt, Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, or Buishand test). Among the satellite rainfall products, CHIRPS had the best measurements for the analyzed points on the surface. The year 1983 was characterized as very rainy, also marked by the occurrence of El Niño, and was marked by the rupture of the rains at all points (IDs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7) analyzed in the month of June. The decrease in monthly rainfall was more significant in the months of February (at points IDs 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7) and April (IDs 1, 3, 5, and 7). Decreased rainfall may cause CICS mangrove shrinkage. These results showed the importance of studying rainfall in an area with mangroves in order to understand the dynamics of vegetation in the face of climate change.

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Section: Monthly Trends and Rupturessupporting

confidence: 54%

Precipitation Anomalies and Trends Estimated via Satellite Rainfall Products in the Cananeia–Iguape Coastal System, Southeast Region of Brazil

Baratto,

de Bodas Terassi,

de Beserra de Lima

et al. 2024

Climate

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“…The MK test (Mann 1945;Kendall 1975) has been the most used temporal trend test (Terassi et al 2022), and is recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for this purpose (WMO 2012). The S statistic of the MK test is calculated as the following (Mann 1945;Kendall 1975) : ( )…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Frequency analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall in Brazil with multiparameter probability density functions

Rodrigues,

Beskow,

Siqueira

et al. 2024

Preprint

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For water resources engineering and management, understand the extreme rainfall events it’s essential. Using rainfall frequency analysis, one can fit many Probability Density Functions (PDFs) to the rainfall series and identify the best fit through the goodness-of-fit tests, allowing the estimate of Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall (AMDR) quantiles for different Return Periods (RP). Recommendations regarding the best PDFs for this have been made for some countries, however, in the opposite direction, Brazil has no guidelines or recommendations such as the above mentioned, and Gumbel distribution still is the most used PDF for modeling AMDR, frequently without testing others. That said, we focus in modeling thousands of AMDR series in Brazil, evaluating ten PDF candidates to find the best fit and defining the most indicated to describe AMDR in the country. The methodology consisted of: acquisition, structuration and screening process by temporal and statistical criteria; fit of the 2-, 3- and multiparameter PDFs to the AMDR series based on the L-moments method; quantile estimation; and PDFs performance assessment by Filliben test and the relative absolute error. From the almost 4 thousand AMDR series investigated, we concluded that: Gumbel and Exponential provided the poorest performance (32.1–60.2% of non-satisfactory fits); multiparametric PDFs (Wakeby and Kappa) are the most indicated for modeling AMDR in Brazil; Gumbel had the highest error values for quantile estimate, especially for high RP; novelties and advances on probabilistic modeling of AMDR in Brazil were provided, helping decision makers with accurate and essential technical information for many purposes.

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Application of the vector autoregressive model and the association between ocean indicators and rainfall anomalies in eastern Paraná State, Brazil

de Bodas Terassi,

Galvani,

Sobral

et al. 2023

Theor Appl Climatol

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Daily rainfall intensity and temporal trends in eastern Paraná state – Brazil

Cited by 5 publications

References 87 publications

Precipitation Anomalies and Trends Estimated via Satellite Rainfall Products in the Cananeia–Iguape Coastal System, Southeast Region of Brazil

Precipitation Anomalies and Trends Estimated via Satellite Rainfall Products in the Cananeia–Iguape Coastal System, Southeast Region of Brazil

Frequency analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall in Brazil with multiparameter probability density functions

Application of the vector autoregressive model and the association between ocean indicators and rainfall anomalies in eastern Paraná State, Brazil

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