D-S evidence based FMECA approach to assess potential risks in ballast water system (BWS) on-board tanker ship

Sezer, Sukru Ilke; Ceylan, Bulut Ozan; Akyüz, Emre; Arslan, Özcan

doi:10.1016/j.joes.2022.06.040

Cited by 17 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Equal importance [1,2] A bit important [2,4] Important [4,6] Very important [6,8] Absolutely important [8,9] The experts were selected based on their experience and work experience in the field of sewage treatment plants. Among them, some are university professors who have a long history of teaching courses related to water and sewage in universities and research centers and in various studies in this field.…”

Section: Linguistic Variable Gray Numbersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Due to its inability to provide a satisfactory mathematical framework for effectively managing uncertainties when evaluating risk parameters and prioritizing failure modes, the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory was combined with failure mode effects and critical analysis (FMECA) by Sazer et al. in order to assess potential system failures and their underlying causes [9]. Similarly, Wang et al utilized this approach to identify groundwater zones in arid basins using GIS information.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Enhancing Decision Fusion for Wastewater Treatment System Selection Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Gray Analytic Hierarchy Process

Zhian,

Hashemi Monfared,

Rashki

et al. 2024

Water

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This research presents an innovative data fusion model that utilizes Monte Carlo simulations (MC) and the Gray Analytic Hierarchy Process (G-AHP) to address the complexity and uncertainty in decision-making processes, particularly in selecting sustainable wastewater treatment systems. The study critiques and extends the Dempster–Shafer and Yager’s theories by incorporating a novel MC algorithm that mitigates the computational challenges of large numbers of experts and sensors. The model demonstrates superior performance in synthesizing diverse expert opinions and evidence, ensuring comprehensive and probabilistically informed decision-making under uncertainty. The results show that the combined MC algorithm produces satisfactory results, and thus, offers wide applicability in decision-making contexts. To determine its effectiveness, an extensive empirical study was conducted to identify an appropriate wastewater treatment system for the busy city of Tehran, incorporating the insights and perspectives of respected experts in the field. The selection was based on three technical, economic, and environmental–social criteria. Due to the large dimensions of each of the defined criteria, sub-criteria were also defined to achieve better results for each of the criteria. The in-depth analysis conducted revealed that enhanced aeration activated sludge (EAAS) emerged as the best choice for Tehran’s most urgent needs among various competitors, with a remarkable priority rating of 34.48%. Next, the Gray Analytic Hierarchy Process (G-AHP) was used to determine the most important sub-criterion, based on which resistance to hydraulic shock is most important in the enhanced aeration activated sludge system. Due to its versatility in different fields and industries, this method is a powerful tool for managers to optimize system efficiency and identify defects and risks and eventually to minimize costs.

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Section: Linguistic Variable Gray Numbersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing Decision Fusion for Wastewater Treatment System Selection Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Gray Analytic Hierarchy Process

Zhian,

Hashemi Monfared,

Rashki

et al. 2024

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The crucial elements of the D-S evidence theory include the frame of discernment (FOD), the basic probability assignment (BPA) [29], and the Dempster combination rule.…”

Section: The Dempster-shafer Theory Of Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The belief measure Bel (pi) expresses the confidence degree in proposition pi. It is calculated by the sum of all the BPAs of pk, which are the appropriate subsets of the set pi of interest [29], as follows:…”

Section: Belief Measure and Plausibility Measurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…After obtaining the failure mode risk assessment data from the experts, all combinations of risk factor assessment results need to be considered in order to compare the failure mode risk priorities more clearly. Since there are r risk factors for failure mode FM i judged by N experts, the number of possible combinations is N r [29]. The RPN values associated with each failure mode are calculated using Equation (1), as shown in Table 3.…”

Section: Calculating Rpn Values For All Portfolios Of Risk Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk Assessment and Reliability Analysis of Oil Pump Unit Based on D-S Evidence Theory

Xing¹,

Wei²,

et al. 2023

Energies

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Oil pumps are crucial equipment in pipeline transportation, and their safe and reliable operation is essential for the smooth and efficient operation of the oil station and associated pipelines. The failure of oil pumps can result in significant consequences, making it crucial to evaluate their safety for effective maintenance and reliable system prediction. Failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) is a quantitative fault analysis technique that assigns priority to fault modes using the risk priority number (RPN). However, the RPN may not accurately express uncertainty judgments of risk factors given by multiple experts. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a novel FMECA method based on the D-S evidence theory. The method involves using interval form to obtain risk factor evaluations from experts and data combination to obtain a multi-value representation of the RPN for each fault mode. The prioritization of fault modes is optimized using confidence and fidelity distribution to eliminate multiple modes of the same level. Finally, the normalization method is used to determine the risk degree ranking of oil pump units. Overall, the proposed method is an effective and practical approach for the risk evaluation and reliability analysis of oil pump units.

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Operational risk assessment of marine boiler plant for on-board systems safety

Ceylan,

Celik

2024

Applied Ocean Research

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D-S evidence based FMECA approach to assess potential risks in ballast water system (BWS) on-board tanker ship

Cited by 17 publications

References 67 publications

Enhancing Decision Fusion for Wastewater Treatment System Selection Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Gray Analytic Hierarchy Process

Enhancing Decision Fusion for Wastewater Treatment System Selection Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Gray Analytic Hierarchy Process

Risk Assessment and Reliability Analysis of Oil Pump Unit Based on D-S Evidence Theory

Operational risk assessment of marine boiler plant for on-board systems safety

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