Cyclical Student Shifting Models in a Limited Face-to-Face Learning Modality in the time of COVID-19 Pandemic in the Philippines

Abstract

A joint memorandum circular (JMC No. 2021-001) was released by the Commission on Higher Education (CHED) and the Department of Health (DOH) in the Philippines, outlining the guidelines on the gradual reopening of higher education campuses for limited face-to-face classes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Besides the strict enforcement of health protocols, the said circular recommended for the reduction of COVID-19 reproduction number by limiting the number of students present within the campus through the adoption of a cyclical student shifting model. This study evaluates 32 cyclical 2-shift models and how these schedules minimizes COVID-19 incidence in the campus. A compartmental SEIRS model is used to simulate the number of infection for a 36-week period where the proposed 32 cyclical schedules and health protocols, such as the wearing of minimum personal protective gears and physical distancing, are inserted into the model. The simulation has shown that all of the proposed schedules result to low disease transmission as long as there is strong adherence to health protocols among students or strict implementation of health policies for at least 18 weeks; otherwise, the 4-10 cycle model is recommended, or shifting schedules with 3-4 consecutive weeks of in-campus classes when health protocols are poorly implemented. The results of this study will guide university administrators in crafting their respective COVID-19 academic plan, especially in the selection of a suitable cyclical shifting schedule for their institution.