Cyclic patterns of incidence rate for skin malignant melanoma: association with heliogeophysical activity

Abstract

Background: Our previous studies revealed cyclicity in the incidence rate of skin malignant melanoma (SMM; ICD9, Dx:172) in the Czech Republic (period T=7.50~7.63 years), UK (T=11.00 years) and Bulgaria (T=12.20 years). Incidences compared with the sunspot index Rz (lag-period dT=+2, +4, +6, +10 or +12 years) have indicated that maximal rates are most likely to appear on descending slopes of the 11-year solar cycle, i.e., out of phase. We summarized and explored more deeply these cyclic variations and discussed their possible associations with heliogeophysical activity (HGA) components exhibiting similar cyclicity. Methods: Annual incidences of SMM from 5 countries (Czech Republic, UK, Bulgaria, USA and Canada) over various time spans during the years 1964~1992 were analyzed and their correlations with cyclic Rz (sunspot number) and aa (planetary geomagnetic activity) indices were summarized. Periodogram regression analysis with trigonometric approximation and phase-correlation analysis were applied. Results: Previous findings on SMM for the Czech Republic, UK and Bulgaria have been validated, and cyclic patterns have been revealed for USA (T=8.63 years, P<0.05) and Canada (Ontario, T=9.91 years, P<0.10). Also, various 'hypercycles' were established (T=45.5, 42.0, 48.25, 34.5 and 26.5 years, respectively) describing long-term cyclic incidence patterns. The association of SMM for USA and Canada with Rz (dT=+6 and +7 years, respectively) and aa (dT=−10 and +9 years, respectively) was described. Possible interactions of cyclic non-photic influences (UV irradiation, Schumann resonance signal, low-frequency geomagnetic fluctuations) with brain waves absorbance, neuronal calcium dynamics, neuro-endocrine axis modulation, melatonin/serotonin disbalance and skin neuro-immunity impairment as likely causal pathways in melanoma appearance, were also discussed. Conclusion: The above findings on cyclicity and temporal association of SMM with cyclic environmental factors could not only allow for better forecasting models but also lead to a better understanding of melanoma aetiology.

Sunspot Dynamics Are Reflected in Human Physiology and Pathophysiology

“…Peaks in solar radiation associated with the 10-11 year solar cycle have been implicated as a possible cause for genetic disruption of all life by means of direct mutation and immunologic stress, since even the resultant 1-2% increase in UV radiation at ground level during sunspot cycle peaks is a significant stress to an organism's DNA repair mechanisms and can, thereby, be a modulator of disease (Davis and Lowell, 2006). A temporal association between infra-annual cycles in heliogeophysical activity and the rate of skin malignant melanoma in Europe and North America has been observed (Dimitrov et al, 2008). Birth-dependent cancer mortality on three continents spanning 180 years has also been linked to a 17-year oscillation, a so-called sunspot double cycle, in cosmic radiation ( Juckett, 2009).…”

Cyclic patterns of cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea for the years 1987–1996

“…6). The PRA, whether using basic (original), detrended or decycled time-series can be used for decomposing, modelling and reconstructing estimates by trigonometric approximation and produces model and forecast estimates [16, 20, 22]. At the same time, the two-dimensional continuous WTs were calculated to represent the change of spectral power (time-frequency distribution of variations) and describe structures of different time scales by the application of a Morlet mother wavelet.…”

Cyclic variations in the dynamics of flu incidence in Azerbaijan, 1976–2000

“…similarly to malignant melanoma of the skin [18]. Therefore, any other hierarchy of such cyclicity with a lower frequency of 6-7 years or 10-13 years may be considered [2] as a 'repetition' of this principal, common period appearing along the curve of the 11-year sunspot cycle.…”

“…Notably, we can assume that the main short-term multiannual (biennial/triennial) cycle in flu variation is the cycle with a period T = 2–3 years [5], that is, beyond the prevailing seasonality and irrespective of the geographical location, i.e. similarly to malignant melanoma of the skin [18]. Therefore, any other hierarchy of such cyclicity with a lower frequency of 6–7 years or 10–13 years may be considered [2] as a ‘repetition’ of this principal, common period appearing along the curve of the 11-year sunspot cycle.…”