Cybersecurity For Defense Economists

Arce, Daniel G.

doi:10.1080/10242694.2022.2138122

Cited by 7 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Offensive cyber operations constitute a clear example of a hybrid threat below the threshold of large-scale armed conflict. Indeed, cyber operations have become more prevalent in recent years due to the technical, physical and logical layers of cyberspace and the pervasive use of networks and technologies in our daily life [25]. 5 Furthermore, offensive cyber operations may well produce material consequences resulting in considerable physical damage such as for instance in the case of Stuxnet in Iran (2009), Shamoon in Saudi Arabia (2012) or NotPetya in over sixty countries around the world (2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bayesian Network Approach to Hybrid Threat Modelling

Vonk,

Sweijs,

Minicozzi

2024

Preprint

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Western governments have adopted an assortment of counter-hybrid threat measures to defend against hostile actions below the conventional military threshold. The impact of these measures is unclear because of the ambiguity of hybrid threats, their cross-domain nature, and uncertainty about how countermeasures shape adversarial behaviour. This paper presents a model to simulate the impact of countermeasures on hybrid threat behaviour through a Bayesian Network approach - a probabilistic modelling technique. The model balances the costs of countermeasures, their ability to dissuade the adversary from executing hybrid threats, and their potential to mitigate the impact of hybrid threats. We run 1000 variants of a semi-synthetic scenario simulating the strategic interaction between attacking agent A and defending agent B over a cyber attack on critical infrastructure to explore the effectiveness of a set of five different counter-hybrid threat measures. Counter-hybrid measures range from strengthening resilience and denial of the adversary's ability to execute a hybrid threat to dissuasion through the threat of punishment. Our analysis primarily evaluates the overarching characteristics of counter-hybrid threat measures This approach allows us to generalize the effectiveness of these measures, rather than attributing results to measures individually. In addition, we discuss policy relevance and outline future research avenues.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%