Current Trend of Carbon Emissions from Wildfires in Siberia

Abstract

Smoke from wildfires in Siberia often affects air quality over vast territories of the Northern hemisphere during the summer. Increasing fire emissions also affect regional and global carbon balance. To estimate annual carbon emissions from wildfires in Siberia from 2002–2020, we categorized levels of fire intensity for individual active fire pixels based on fire radiative power data from the standard MODIS product (MOD14/MYD14). For the last two decades, estimated annual direct carbon emissions from wildfires varied greatly, ranging from 20–220 Tg C per year. Sporadic maxima were observed in 2003 (>150 Tg C/year), in 2012 (>220 Tg C/year), in 2019 (~180 Tg C/year). However, the 2020 fire season was extraordinary in terms of fire emissions (~350 Tg C/year). The estimated average annual level of fire emissions was 80 ± 20 Tg C/year when extreme years were excluded from the analysis. For the next decade the average level of fire emissions might increase to 250 ± 30 Tg C/year for extreme fire seasons, and to 110 ± 20 Tg C/year for moderate fire seasons. However, under the extreme IPCC RPC 8.5 scenario for Siberia, wildfire emissions might increase to 1200–1500 Tg C/year by 2050 if there were no significant changes in patterns of vegetation distribution and fuel loadings.

Classification of Fire Damage to Boreal Forests of Siberia in 2021 Based on the dNBR Index

“…This category of fire is characterized by long activity, large area burned, and significant variability of intensity. Siberian fires of this category are prevalent mainly in larch close stands, accounting for up to 75-90% of the total area of annual area burned [4,10,28]. Our findings quantify the proportion of stand-replacement fires (in terms of dNBR range) from 7-12% for the category of small-size fire to 15-20% for large-scale fire.…”

“…The study area experiences the highest concentration of fires in [4,34]. Long-term statistics show that wildfires in the larch and pine forests of Sib count for up to 77% of all fire areas [4,10], while the proportion of fires in larch exceeds 60% of the total area damaged annually. With climate change, it is possi fires will increase in the north of the region [3,35].…”

“…Satellite data are important for determining the degree of forest disturbance [8,9], for calculating direct fire emissions [10], monitoring the post-fire state of soils [11,12], and vegetation cover and their restoration [13,14]. Of particular interest is the problem of identifying post-fire mortality and restoration of tree stands.…”

Optical Characterization of Fresh and Photochemically Aged Aerosols Emitted from Laboratory Siberian Peat Burning

“…Siberian peat was used as fuel due to its regional and global importance as wildland fuel [49], its steady smoldering combustion [7], and its increasing importance due to climate change [64,65]. Siberia is home to ~50% of the world's peatland and it has been predicted that the burning of these peatlands may double in the future due to climate change [7].…”

Climate change, fire return intervals and the growing risk of permanent forest loss in boreal Eurasia

“…Applying the risk criteria detailed in Table 1 and shown in Figure 9 to the predictions of FRI shown in Figure 8, we estimate that 530, 000 km 2 is at high or extreme risk of fire-induced forest loss during the2015 to 2045 window, almost double the amount of area predicted for the 1985-2015 reference period. Both the 2020 and 2021 fire seasons, which are not included in the data used in this study, have been exceptionally large with some of the largest burns occurring in Yakutia (Ponomarev et al, 2021).…”