Current status of seismo-electromagnetics for short-term earthquake prediction

Hayakawa, Masashi; Hobara, Yasuhide

doi:10.1080/19475705.2010.486933

Cited by 120 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…This is a question debated in the science community (Eftaxias, 2012). Despite fairly abundant evidence, EM precursors have not been adequately accepted as real physical quantities (Morgounov and Shakhraman'yan, 1996;Uyeda et al, 2009;Hayakawa and Hobara, 2010). There may be legitimate reasons for the critical views concerning the reliability of EM precursors: the degree to which we can predict a phenomenon is often measured by how well we understand it.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, improvements in the MHz-kHz EME technique have permitted a real-time monitoring of the fracture process (Fukui et al, 2005;Kumar and Misra, 2007;Chauhan and Ashok Misra, 2008;Baddari et al, 1999Baddari et al, , 2011Baddari and Frolov, 2010;Lacidogna et al, 2010;Schiavi et al, 2011;Carpinteri et al, 2012). However, the MHz-kHz electromagnetic (EM) precursors are detectable not only at the laboratory but also at the geological scale; a stressed rock behaves like a stress-EM transducer (Sadovski, 1982;Hayakawa and Fujinawa, 1994;Gokhberg et al, 1995;Hayakawa, 1999Hayakawa, , 2009Hayakawa and Molchanov, 2002;Eftaxias et al, 2007Eftaxias et al, , 2011Eftaxias, 2012;Molchanov and Hayakawa, 2008). The idea that the fracture-induced MHz-kHz EM fields should also permit the monitoring of the gradual damage of stressed materials in the Earth's crust, as happens in the laboratory experiments, in real time and step by step, seems to be justified: the aspect of self-affine nature of faulting and fracture is well documented.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the puzzling feature of the silence of precursory electromagnetic emissions

Eftaxias

Potirakis

Chélidzé

2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. It has been suggested that fracture-induced MHzkHz electromagnetic emissions (EME), which emerge from a few days up to a few hours before the main seismic shock occurrence permit a real-time monitoring of the damage process during the last stages of earthquake preparation, as it happens at the laboratory scale. Despite fairly abundant evidence, electromagnetic (EM) precursors have not been adequately accepted as credible physical phenomena. These negative views are enhanced by the fact that certain "puzzling features" are repetitively observed in candidate fractureinduced pre-seismic EME. More precisely, EM silence in all frequency bands appears before the main seismic shock occurrence, as well as during the aftershock period. Actually, the view that "acceptance of "precursive" EM signals without convincing co-seismic signals should not be expected" seems to be reasonable. In this work we focus on this point. We examine whether the aforementioned features of EM silence are really puzzling ones or, instead, reflect well-documented characteristic features of the fracture process, in terms of universal structural patterns of the fracture process, recent laboratory experiments, numerical and theoretical studies of fracture dynamics, critical phenomena, percolation theory, and micromechanics of granular materials. Our analysis shows that these features should not be considered puzzling.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the puzzling feature of the silence of precursory electromagnetic emissions

Eftaxias

Potirakis

Chélidzé

2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…It has been recently shown that there exist electromagnetic precursors to earthquakes (EQs) (e.g., Hayakawa 1999Hayakawa , 2009aHayakawa and Molchanov 2002;Pulinets and Boyarchuk 2004;Molchanov and Hayakawa 2008;Uyeda et al 2009;Hayakawa and Hobara 2010). The observation of seismo-electromagnetic and related phenomena can be customarily classified into the two categories: (1) direct effects emitted from the lithosphere and received on the Earth's surface, and (2) the indirect effects of EQs which are the perturbations (or disturbances) taking place either in the atmosphere or in the ionosphere due to pre-EQ lithospheric activities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ionospheric Precursor to the 2011 March 11 Earthquake Based upon Observations Obtained from the Japan-Pacific Subionospheric VLF/LF Network

Hayakawa¹,

Hobara²,

Рожной³

et al. 2013

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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By using network observation of subionospheric VLF (very low frequency)/LF (low frequency) signals in Japan and in Russia, we have found a significant ionospheric perturbation prior to the recent 2011 March 11 Japan earthquake (EQ) which occurred at sea proximate to the Tohoku area on the main island (Honshu) of Japan was an exceptionally huge plate-type EQ. A remarkable anomaly (with a decrease in the nighttime amplitude and also with enhancement in dispersion) was detected on March 5 and 6 along the propagation path from the NLK (Seattle, USA) transmitter to Chofu (together with Kochi and Kasugai). We also have observed the corresponding VLF anomaly during a prolonged period of March 1 -6, with minima in the nighttime amplitude on March 3 and 4 along the path from JJI (Miyazaki, Kyushu) to Kamchatka, Russia. This ionospheric perturbation has been discussed extensively with respect to its reliability. (1) How abnormal is this VLF/LF propagation anomaly? (2) What was the temporal evolution of terminator times? (3) Were there any solar-terrestrial effects (especially the effect from geomagnetic storms) on the VLF/LF propagation anomaly? (4) The effect of any other EQs and foreshock activities on the VLF/LF anomaly? (5) Were there any correlations with other related phenomena? Finally, (6) are there any other examples of a VLF/LF propagation anomaly for oceanic EQs? We then compared the temporal properties of ionospheric perturbations for this EQ with those of a huge number of inland EQs and compared the corresponding spatial scale with the former result of the same oceanic 2004 Sumatra EQ with nearly the same magnitude. Finally, the generation mechanism of those seismo-ionospheric perturbations is briefly discussed.

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“…Recently, anomalous changes to the ground, atmosphere and ionosphere, observed by both Earth-and space-based instrumentation, were found to be associated with several earthquakes that occurred in China, Taiwan, Europe and Japan (Walia et al 2006, Yasuoka et al 2006, Cioni et al 2007, Omori et al 2007, Sharma et al 2008, Anagnostopoulos et al 2010b, Hayakawa and Hobara 2010, Singh et al 2010a. These recent reported pronounced changes in the various surface and atmospheric parameters a few days prior to various earthquakes provide a strong evidence of lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling.…”

mentioning

confidence: 95%

Changes in total electron content associated with earthquakes (M > 5) observed from GPS station, Varanasi, India

Priyadarshi

Kumar

Singh

2011

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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The total electron content (TEC) derived from the global positioning system (GPS) at Varanasi (latitude 25.38 N, longitude 82.998 E), India has been measured during 2007 and 2010. We have chosen nine earthquakes (M 4 5) that occurred within 2000 km of Varanasi during 2007 and 2010 to study the changes in TEC associated with these earthquakes. A monthly median (MM) of the TEC and associated inter quartile range (IQR), upper bound (UB) and lower bound (LB) are utilized as a reference for identifying abnormal signals during all nine earthquakes. The results show anomalous reductions and enhancements in the TEC. These pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies appear within 5 days prior to earthquakes. A possible mechanism responsible for ionospheric anomalies associated with earthquakes is discussed.

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Current status of seismo-electromagnetics for short-term earthquake prediction

Cited by 120 publications

References 57 publications

On the puzzling feature of the silence of precursory electromagnetic emissions

On the puzzling feature of the silence of precursory electromagnetic emissions

The Ionospheric Precursor to the 2011 March 11 Earthquake Based upon Observations Obtained from the Japan-Pacific Subionospheric VLF/LF Network

Changes in total electron content associated with earthquakes (M > 5) observed from GPS station, Varanasi, India

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