Current practices and knowledge supporting oil spill risk assessment in the Arctic

Wenning, Richard J.; Robinson, Hilary; Bock, Michael; Rempel‐Hester, Mary Ann; Gardiner, W

doi:10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.09.006

Cited by 31 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…Moreover, the carriage and use of heavy fuel oil in the Arctic may be prevented in near future (Prior and Walsh 2018). Lastly, Arctic oil spill response is an increasingly studied topic (Wenning et al 2018) and the improving preparedness may decrease the risk the spilled oil poses to environment in the future. Nevertheless, proactive preventative measures to minimize the risk are also needed, and the oil spill impacts can be controlled by managing when, where, what kind, and how much oil is shipped.…”

Section: Applicability Of the Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The models also generally assume the biota to have the same vulnerability throughout the year which can be particularly problematic in the Arctic characterized by strong seasonality. In addition to the abovementioned models, some Arctic oil spill response planning tools include estimates of impacts to environment (Wenning et al 2018). Moreover, the models have limited ability to account for uncertainty which is a significant shortcoming especially in the Arctic where the underlying uncertainties are typically great (Emmerson and Lahn 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, the models have limited ability to account for uncertainty which is a significant shortcoming especially in the Arctic where the underlying uncertainties are typically great (Emmerson and Lahn 2012). In addition to the abovementioned models, some Arctic oil spill response planning tools include estimates of impacts to environment (Wenning et al 2018). However, such methodologies have been mainly developed for the most data-rich parts of the Arctic such as the Norwegian Arctic continental shelf and the U.S. Alaskan region (Aurand and Essex 2012, DNV-GL 2014, Robinson et al 2017.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Index‐based approach for estimating vulnerability of Arctic biota to oil spills

2019

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Citation: Nevalainen, M., J. Vanhatalo, and I. Helle. 2019. Index-based approach for estimating vulnerability of Arctic biota to oil spills. Ecosphere 10(6):Abstract. Risk of an Arctic oil spill has become a global matter of concern. Climate change induced opening of shipping routes increases the Arctic maritime traffic which exposes the area to negative impacts of potential maritime accidents. Still, quantitative analyses of the likely environmental impacts of such accidents are scarce, and our understanding of the uncertainties related to both accidents and their consequences is poor. There is an obvious need for analysis tools that allow us to systematically analyze the impacts of oil spills on Arctic species, so the risks can be taken into account when new sea routes or previously unexploited oil reserves are utilized. In this paper, an index-based approach is developed to study exposure potential (described via probability of becoming exposed to spilled oil) and sensitivity (described via oil-induced mortality and recovery) of Arctic biota in the face of an oil spill. First, a conceptual model presenting the relevant variables that contribute to exposure potential and sensitivity of key Arctic marine functional groups was built. Second, based on an extensive literature review, a probabilistic estimate was assigned for each variable, and the variables were combined to an index representing the overall vulnerability of Arctic biota. The resulting index can be used to compare the relative risk between functional groups and accident scenarios. Results indicate that birds have the highest vulnerability to spilled oil, and seals and whales the lowest. Polar bears' vulnerability varies greatly between seasons, while ice seals' vulnerability remains the same in every accident scenario. Exposure potential of most groups depends strongly on type of oil, whereas their sensitivity contains less variation.

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Section: Applicability Of the Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Index‐based approach for estimating vulnerability of Arctic biota to oil spills

2019

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“…Even though the yearly number and severity of spills have since reduced, oil spills are still a recognised problem worldwide [2]. Lately, a lot of attention focuses on the Arctic [3], which has thus far been spared of major incidents. There is a variety of technological oil spill response applicable solutions, but they all have certain operational limitations due to regional environmental challenges [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 30-Year Probability Map for Oil Spill Trajectories in the Barents Sea to Assess Potential Environmental and Socio-Economic Threats

et al. 2021

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Increasing exploration and exploitation activity in the Arctic Ocean has intensified maritime traffic in the Barents Sea. Due to the sparse population and insufficient oil spill response infrastructure on the extensive Barents Sea shoreline, it is necessary to address the possibility of offshore accidents and study hazards to the local environment and its resources. Simulations of surface oil spills were conducted in south-east of the Barents Sea to identify oil pollution trajectories. The objective of this research was to focus on one geographical location, which lies along popular maritime routes and also borders with sensitive ecological marine and terrestrial areas. As a sample of traditional heavy bunker oil, IFO-180LS (2014) was selected for the study of oil spills and used for the 30-year simulations. The second oil case was medium oil type: Volve (2006)—to give a broader picture for oil spill accident scenarios. Simulations for four annual seasons were run with the open source OpenDrift modelling tool using oceanographic and atmospheric data from the period of 1988–2018. The modelling produced a 30-year probability map, which was overlapped with environmental data of the area to discuss likely impacts to local marine ecosystems, applicable oil spill response tools and favourable shipping seasons. Based on available data regarding the environmental and socio-economic baselines of the studied region, we recommend to address potential threats to marine resources and local communities in more detail in a separate study.

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“…Oil spill risk assessment (OSRA) combines the probability of spill occurrence with an analysis of the consequences. The latter covers information about the oil’s properties, its fate and movement, and its impacts on natural resources. , However, many of these factors are difficult to assess reliably in the Arctic. Although there are sophisticated oil spill models to assess the trajectory and fate of spilled oil (e.g., SIMAP and OSCAR), they usually require extensive data about bathymetry, weather conditions, and coastal habitat types, which are currently not available for the majority of Arctic marine areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Oil Spills on Arctic Marine Ecosystems: A Quantitative and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Perspective

Helle

Mäkinen

Nevalainen

et al. 2020

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Oil spills resulting from maritime accidents pose a poorly understood risk to the Arctic environment. We propose a novel probabilistic method to quantitatively assess these risks. Our method accounts for spatiotemporally varying population distributions, the spreading of oil, and seasonally varying species-specific exposure potential and sensitivity to oil. It quantifies risk with explicit uncertainty estimates, enables one to compare risks over large geographic areas, and produces information on a meaningful scale for decision-making. We demonstrate the method by assessing the short-term risks oil spills pose to polar bears, ringed seals, and walrus in the Kara Sea, the western part of the Northern Sea Route. The risks differ considerably between species, spatial locations, and seasons. Our results support current aspirations to ban heavy fuel oil in the Arctic but show that we should not underestimate the risks of lighter oils either, as these oils can pollute larger areas than heavier ones. Our results also highlight the importance of spatially explicit season-specific oil spill risk assessment in the Arctic and that environmental variability and the lack of data are a major source of uncertainty related to the oil spill impacts.

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Current practices and knowledge supporting oil spill risk assessment in the Arctic

Cited by 31 publications

References 70 publications

Index‐based approach for estimating vulnerability of Arctic biota to oil spills

Index‐based approach for estimating vulnerability of Arctic biota to oil spills

A 30-Year Probability Map for Oil Spill Trajectories in the Barents Sea to Assess Potential Environmental and Socio-Economic Threats

Impacts of Oil Spills on Arctic Marine Ecosystems: A Quantitative and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Perspective

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