Current frequency variation trends of dangerous winds in the Eastern sector of the Russian Arctic

Abstract

The article aim is to identify mean values and change trends in the frequency of winds that pose a danger to navigation on shipping routes of the Laptev and East Siberian Seas which became evident in 2010–2021 period. In the period under review the winds were considered dangerous if their average hourly speed over the water surface at 10 m altitude exceeded 15 m/s. The factual material is based on information from the ERA5 global reanalysis. The research methodology involves the use of standard methods of mathematical statistics. A comparative analysis of the last two 12-year periods (1998–2009 and 2010–2021) has shown that the climate changes that happened in 2010–2021 significantly affected the wind regime of the studied region, which had consequences for shipping. In August, a significant decrease in the frequency of dangerous winds was recorded in the region, which generally contributed to the improvement of navigation safety by reducing storm risks. Opposite trends manifested themselves from September to December, which led to increased storm surge and a rise in the likelihood of ships icing, especially on the high-latitude paths of the Northern Sea Route and approaches to the Long Strait. The decrease in the frequency of winds, revealed in January and April, contributed to the preservation of a stable ice cover and stable difficult navigation conditions in these months. The persistence of the identified trends in interannual changes in the wind regime in the region under consideration in the future is not guaranteed. Therefore, the development of the existing network of Arctic weather stations remains an urgent problem for shipping.