Current approaches to forecasting and modeling population morbidity in Russia (review)

Abstract

In modern conditions, new methods and approaches to forecasting and modeling the spread of new types of diseases and their impact on the world economy, the health of the population, resource and technological capabilities, as well as the effectiveness of management measures to control it by health care, industry and governments of different countries and regions of the world are becoming particularly relevant. The purpose of this study was to study and generalize the existing domestic experience in predicting and modeling population morbidity, analyze the use of basic methods and approaches to its prediction. This article provides an overview and analysis of Russian scientific publications on the issues of population morbidity forecasting at the population level. it also discusses the features of various approaches and methods for predicting different classes, groups and types of diseases, including in the territorial context in Russia. Thus, this study will also determine the disadvantages and advantages of using certain methodological approaches, especially when identifying new viruses and infectious diseases, which is very important for timely planning and conducting anti-epidemic and preventive measures.