Current and Potential Future Global Distribution of the Raisin Moth Cadra figulilella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under Two Different Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Global trade facilitates the introduction of invasive species that can cause irreversible damage to agriculture and the environment, as well as stored food products. The raisin moth (Cadra figulilella) is an invasive pest that poses a significant threat to fruits and dried foods. Climate change may exacerbate this threat by expanding moth’s distribution to new areas. In this study, we used CLIMEX and MaxEnt niche modeling tools to assess the potential global distribution of the raisin moth under current and future climate change scenarios. Our models projected that the area of suitable distribution for the raisin moth could increase by up to 36.37% by the end of this century under high emission scenario. We also found that excessive precipitation decreases probability of raisin moth establishment and that the optimum temperature range for the species during the wettest quarter of the year is 0–18 °C. These findings highlight the need for future research to utilize a combined modeling approach to predict the distribution of the raisin moth under current and future climate conditions more accurately. Our results could be used for environmental risk assessments, as well as to inform international trade decisions and negotiations on phytosanitary measures with regards to this invasive species.

Correction: Wang et al. Current and Potential Future Global Distribution of the Raisin Moth Cadra figulilella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under Two Different Climate Change Scenarios. Biology 2023, 12, 435

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“…In the published publication [1], there was an error regarding the autho contributions for ** Gonzalo A. Avila **. Funding acquisition for this author should b deleted.…”

Climate Change Facilitates the Potentially Suitable Habitats of the Invasive Crop Insect Ectomyelois ceratoniae (Zeller)

“…However, previous research has focused on the biological characteristics and control measures of E. ceratoniae [12,[14][15][16][17][18][19], and few have investigated the PSH of E. ceratoniae under climate change. Only a few studies have frequently used the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt) models to predict the current and future distribution of other Lepidopterous pests, such as Cydia pomonell (Linnaeus) and Cadra figulilella (Gregson) [20,21]. Considering the wide spread of E. ceratoniae and its serious threat to fruit production [22,23], predicting the PSH of E. ceratoniae is beneficial for early warning and control on a global scale.…”