Current and perturbed climate as simulated by the second-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM-II) over northwestern North America

Laprise, René; Caya, Daniel; Frigon, Anne; Paquin, Dominique

doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0342-4

Cited by 89 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Huth 1999;Wilby et al 2002) or dynamical techniques (e.g. Jones et al 1995;Christensen et al 2001;Laprise et al 2003). Here we adopt a commonly used dynamical downscaling technique in which a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) is driven by time series of lateral boundary conditions (atmospheric surface pressure, wind, temperature and moisture plus chemical species required for the calculation of sulphate aerosol concentrations) and surface boundary conditions (sea surface temperatures and sea ice extents) saved from a previous GCM simulation.…”

Section: (I ) Downscaling Transient Changes For Impact Assessments (Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles

Murphy

Booth

Collins

et al. 2007

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

288

254

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A methodology is described for probabilistic predictions of future climate. This is based on a set of ensemble simulations of equilibrium and time-dependent changes, carried out by perturbing poorly constrained parameters controlling key physical and biogeochemical processes in the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere global climate model. These (ongoing) experiments allow quantification of the effects of earth system modelling uncertainties and internal climate variability on feedbacks likely to exert a significant influence on twenty-first century climate at large regional scales. A further ensemble of regional climate simulations at 25 km resolution is being produced for Europe, allowing the specification of probabilistic predictions at spatial scales required for studies of climate impacts. The ensemble simulations are processed using a set of statistical procedures, the centrepiece of which is a Bayesian statistical framework designed for use with complex but imperfect models. This supports the generation of probabilities constrained by a wide range of observational metrics, and also by expert-specified prior distributions defining the model parameter space. The Bayesian framework also accounts for additional uncertainty introduced by structural modelling errors, which are estimated using our ensembles to predict the results of alternative climate models containing different structural assumptions. This facilitates the generation of probabilistic predictions combining information from perturbed physics and multi-model ensemble simulations. The methodology makes extensive use of emulation and scaling techniques trained on climate model results. These are used to sample the equilibrium response to doubled carbon dioxide at any required point in the parameter space of surface and atmospheric processes, to sample time-dependent changes by combining this information with ensembles sampling uncertainties in the transient response of a wider set of earth system processes, and to sample changes at local scales.The methodology is necessarily dependent on a number of expert choices, which are highlighted throughout the paper.

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Section: (I ) Downscaling Transient Changes For Impact Assessments (Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles

Murphy

Booth

Collins

et al. 2007

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

288

254

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…2). Models predict temperature increases to continue (Laprise et al 2003), making southwest Yukon a particularly useful locale for examining recent plant community dynamics in response to climate change.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Four Decades of Plant Community Change in the Alpine Tundra of Southwest Yukon, Canada

Danby

Koh

Hik

et al. 2011

AMBIO

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Repeat measurements from long-term plots provide precise data for studying plant community change. In 2010, we visited a remote location in Yukon, Canada, where a detailed survey of alpine tundra communities was conducted in 1968. Plant community composition was resurveyed on the same four slopes using the same methods as the original study. Species richness and diversity increased significantly over the 42 years and non-metric multidimensional scaling indicated that community composition had also changed significantly. However, the direction and magnitude of change varied with aspect. Dominant species were not replaced or eliminated but, instead, declined in relative importance. Fine-scale changes in vegetation were evident from repeat photography and dendro-ecological analysis of erect shrubs, supporting the community-level analysis. The period of study corresponds to a mean annual temperature increase of 2°C, suggesting that climate warming has influenced these changes.

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“…These sites may also be suitable for selective forestry, although changes in wildlife habitat may have further implications related to conservation issues or recreational opportunities (Wall, 1998). Since not all sites respond to climate and disturbance in the same manner, better knowledge of the forest history in all parts of the western Cordillera is invaluable in understanding and preserving biodiversity for the future, especially with future climate change (Laprise et al, 2003). It is recommended that paleoecological analyses be used routinely to determine vegetation histories of designated park sites and to plan timber harvesting operations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Holocene Climatic Change and Landscape Response at Cathedral Provincial Park, British Columbia, Canada

Heinrichs

Evans

Hebda

et al. 2006

gpq

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Environmental sensitivity to temperature change was established by comparing pollen, plant macrofossils, macroscopic charcoal, and sediment yield data from Lake of the Woods, Cathedral Provincial Park in the Cascade Mountains of southern British Columbia, Canada, to an independent record of midge-inferred paleotemperature. Steppe vegetation with some spruce and fir occurred initially, developing into pine forests in the warm early Holocene. These forests burned often, preventing spruce and fir succession. Once established, the forests retained an Engelmann Spruce-Subalpine Fir character. After 8000 cal BP, in warm but wetter conditions, the forest contained less pine and fires burned less frequently. About 4000 cal BP, cooler temperatures resulted in closure of the Engelmann Spruce-Subalpine Fir forests and a further reduction in fire frequency. Sediment yield results suggest a stable environment throughout the Holocene, likely due to sediment trapping in two upstream lakes. Midge-inferred temperatures correspond closely with a consensus reconstruction of temperatures from southern British Columbia, however Cathedral Provincial Park terrestrial ecosystems were not as sensitive to past climate change when compared to other nearby Engelmann Spruce-Subalpine Fir sites.La sensibilité de l’environnement de Lake of the Woods (montagnes Cascades, parc provincial Cathedral, sud de la Colombie-Britannique) face au changement de température de l’Holocène a été établie en mettant en parallèle les données locales de pollen, de macrofossiles de plantes, de charbon de bois macroscopique et d’apports sédimentaires à des données indépendantes provenant d’une banque de paléotempératures déduites à partir de l’étude de moucherons. La végétation de steppe comportant quelques épinettes et sapins qui s’est initialement établie a fait place à des forêts de pins, sous l’influence du climat plus chaud du début de l’Holocène. Ces forêts étaient soumises à de fréquents feux, qui ont entravé la succession des épinettes et des sapins. Une fois établies, celles-ci ont conservé les caractéristiques de la pessière d’Engelmann-sapinière subalpine. Après 8000 BP (années étalonnées), en raison de l’existence de conditions chaudes mais plus humides, la forêt comportait moins de pins et de sapins et les feux y étaient moins fréquents. Vers 4000 ans BP, des températures plus froides ont entraîné la disparition de la pessière d’Engelmann-sapinière subalpine et une réduction continue de la fréquence des feux de forêts. Les niveaux d’apports sédimentaires indiquent un environnement stable durant l’Holocène, découlant principalement du trappage des sédiments dans deux lacs situés en amont. Les températures déduites à partir de l’étude de moucherons concordent avec la reconstitution de températures établie à partir d’un consensus pour le sud de la Colombie-Britannique. Il s’avère que les écosystèmes terrestres du parc provincial Cathedral n’ont pas été aussi sensibles aux variations climatiques passées que d’autres pessières d’Engelmann-sapinières subalp...

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Current and perturbed climate as simulated by the second-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM-II) over northwestern North America

Cited by 89 publications

References 46 publications

A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles

A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles

Four Decades of Plant Community Change in the Alpine Tundra of Southwest Yukon, Canada

Holocene Climatic Change and Landscape Response at Cathedral Provincial Park, British Columbia, Canada

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