Current and Future Spatial Distribution of the Genus Cinchona in Peru: Opportunities for Conservation in the Face of Climate Change

Abstract

The genus Cinchona belongs to the Rubiaceae family and comprises native Peruvian tree species distributed in tropical areas. It is currently endangered due to human disturbance and overexploitation for medicinal, forestry and food uses. To date, the current and future distribution of Cinchona spp. under the climate change scenario is unknown. Here, we modeled the present and future spatial distribution of the genus Cinchona using bioclimatic, edaphic and topographic variables using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The results indicate that 8.08% (103,547.89 km2) and 6.02% (77,163.81 km2) of the surface of Peru possesses areas with high and moderate distribution probabilities, respectively, to host the genus Cinchona, distributed mainly in the departments of Cusco, Amazonas, San Martín and Cajamarca. Furthermore, according to future climate scenarios, the areas of high suitability will increase their extension for the years 2050 and 2070 by 3.65% and 3.9%, respectively. Since Peru seeks to promote the forest sector to be the other force for its development, this study can be considered as a basis for the establishment of priority zones for the conservation, restoration, reforestation and sustainable management of Cinchona spp. species in Peru.

Potential Distribution and Identification of Critical Areas for the Preservation and Recovery of Three Species of Cinchona L. (Rubiaceae) in Northeastern Peru

“…C. pubescens is found mainly along the slope of the South American Andes [74]. A high probability of encountering these three species can be primarily expected in the central and southern parts of the Amazonas department, a prediction that coincides with Vergara et al [22], who identified this department as having the potential for the occurrence for the entire Cinchona genus in Peru. Another reason for the possible distribution potential of the species in this area is the prevalence of cloud forests (montane forests), which are suitable habitats for the genus [11,75].…”

“…This is the first attempt to use the species distribution model (SDM) with the maximum entropy modelling technique to predict and identify areas likely to harbor C. capuli, C. macrocalyx, and C. pubescens in Amazonas [67]. This model has previously been applied at departmental [21], regional [22,68], national, and global levels [20]. In contrast to prior studies on modelling the distribution of the genus [20][21][22]68], this study not only utilized occurrence data from virtual databases, herbarium databases, and floristic inventories, but also included species collected in the field.…”

“…This model has previously been applied at departmental [21], regional [22,68], national, and global levels [20]. In contrast to prior studies on modelling the distribution of the genus [20][21][22]68], this study not only utilized occurrence data from virtual databases, herbarium databases, and floristic inventories, but also included species collected in the field. These species were taxonomically identified using morphological and morphometric characteristics [13][14][15].…”

“…Contrarily, García et al [20] did not identify Amazonas as a department with a high likelihood of potential distribution areas for Cinchona, and only identifies a high probability of their presence in the southern part of the province of Chachapoyas (district of Leimebamba). The difference in predictions might stem from García et al [20] not incorporating edaphic variables [22], which can significantly influence the model, considering Cinchona species grow in fertile, well-drained soils, mostly with a thick layer of organic matter, a sandy loam texture, and an acidic-to-neutral pH [76,77], often rich in iron, nitrogen, and potassium [78].…”

“…Research efforts in the Amazonas department have predominantly focused on aspects such as the diversity and taxonomy of the genus [18], as well as its propagation [16,17,19]. Recent studies on Cinchona in Peruvian territory and the Amazonas department have analyzed its distribution as a focus for conservation and restoration [20][21][22]. Despite these efforts, there is a lack of more-detailed investigations on how different species of Cinchona are distributed.…”