Current and future distribution of a parasite with complex life cycle under global change scenarios: Echinococcus multilocularis in Europe

Abstract

Global change is expected to have complex effects on the distribution and transmission patterns of zoonotic parasites. Modelling habitat suitability for parasites with complex life cycles is essential to further our understanding of how disease systems respond to environmental changes, and to make spatial predictions of their future distributions. However, the limited availability of high quality occurrence data with high spatial resolution often constrains these investigations. Using 449 reliable occurrence records for Echinococcus multilocularis from across Europe published over the last 35 years, we modelled habitat suitability for this parasite, the aetiological agent of alveolar echinococcosis, in order to describe its environmental niche, predict its current and future distribution under three global change scenarios, and quantify the probability of occurrence for each European country. Using a machine learning approach, we developed large-scale (25 × 25 km) species distribution models based on seven sets of predictors, each set representing a distinct biological hypothesis supported by current knowledge of the autecology of the parasite. The best-supported hypothesis included climatic, orographic and land-use/land-cover variables such as the temperature of the coldest quarter, forest cover, urban cover and the precipitation seasonality. Future projections suggested the appearance of highly suitable areas for E. multilocularis towards northern latitudes and in the whole Alpine region under all scenarios, while decreases in habitat suitability were predicted for central Europe.Our spatially explicit predictions of habitat suitability shed light on the complex responses of parasites to ongoing global changes.

Current Risk of Dirofilariosis Transmission in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain) and Its Future Projection under Climate Change Scenarios

“…In this methodological field of ENMs, we are hardly aware of any studies in relation to parasitic diseases and their vectors [43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56] and none in relation to dirofilariosis. Most of the studies that analyze the risk of infection by Dirofilaria spp.…”

Confirmed Autochthonous Case of Human Alveolar Echinococcosis, Italy, 2023

“…A 2017 survey conducted in the Liguria region first detected E . multilocularis in fecal samples of dogs and wolves, suggesting a southward expansion of the parasite ( 10 ) ( Appendix Figure), as predicted by modeling ( 3 ). Surveillance of E. multilocularis in Europe is usually conducted voluntarily ( 11 ), and no structured surveillance program for animal infection in Italy occurs beside targeted surveillance through research projects.…”

“…In Europe, North America, and Asia, expanding distribution has been observed in recent decades ( 2 ). In Europe, the historical endemic areas are Austria, France, Germany, and Switzerland, and that range has expanded to include Eastern and Northern Europe ( 3 ). In Italy, infected foxes have been reported over the past 20 years in the Trentino-Alto Adige region ( 4 – 7 ).…”

Tracing the future of epidemics: Coincident niche distribution of host animals and disease incidence revealed climate‐correlated risk shifts of main zoonotic diseases in China

“…The habitat suitability ( P s ) of each host animal was determined based on the distribution possibility generated by Maxent modeling. To conduct further statistical analysis, the determined P s was divided into four classes following previous classification protocols: (1) very low suitable class ( p s <.1); (2) low suitable class (.1 ≤ p s <.3); (3) moderate suitable class (.3 ≤ p s <.5); and (4) high suitable class ( p s ≥.5) (Cao et al, 2016; Cenni et al, 2023; Gomes et al, 2019; Ma et al, 2022; Zhu et al, 2022). For each zoonotic disease, the layer of comprehensive suitability ( P scom ) was calculated as average suitability layers of all the host animals.…”

“…The habitat suitability (P s ) of each host animal was determined based on the distribution possibility generated by Maxent modeling. (Cao et al, 2016;Cenni et al, 2023;Gomes et al, 2019;Ma et al, 2022;Zhu et al, 2022). For each zoonotic disease, the layer of comprehensive suitability (P scom ) was calculated as average suitability layers of all the host animals.…”