Currency Depreciation, Trade Balance and Intra-Industry Trade Interactions in Turkey’s OECD Trade

Demiral, Mehmet

doi:10.5539/ijef.v8n4p8

Cited by 3 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 40 publications

(44 reference statements)

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“…Much of this literature, however, focuses on the responses to aggregate (country level) exchange rate changes. Oguro (2011) and Demiral (2016) provide support for the importance of IIT variations in governing the relationship between the real exchange rate and the trade balance, without controlling for variations in VS separately. Oguro (2011) suggests that the sensitivity of export quantities to changes in the exchange rate declines as IIT increases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Exploring a large panel of industries in multiple countries, she finds that the adverse effects of aggregate bilateral real exchange rate appreciation on industry-level exports are less pronounced in industries with high degrees of IIT, compared to those with low degrees of IIT. Also, exploring Turkey's trade balance with a large set of OECD countries, Demiral (2016) shows that incorporating the variations in IIT may weaken the effect of exchange rate depreciation on exports.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Exchange Rates and Trade Balances: Effects of Intra-Industry Trade and Vertical Specialization

Neumann

Tabrizy

2021

Open Econ Rev

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To examine how changes in relative national prices affect trade flows, this study estimates the impact of changes in industry-specific effective real exchange rates on industry-level trade balances, exports, and imports. We analyze the variations in industry-specific intra-industry trade and vertical specialization, which may both govern the long-run relationship between real exchange rates and trade flows. We employ sample information from 13 manufacturing industries across five Asian countries from 2001 to 2015. Rather than country-level aggregate measures, we use disaggregated industry-specific real exchange rates, which provide better measures of relative national prices and may help to uncover different responses that are masked by aggregate data. Fixed-effect estimations reveal that greater price competitiveness, as measured by depreciation in industry-specific effective real exchange rates, increases industry-level trade balances. We find that the elasticity of industry-level trade balances with respect to industry-specific real exchange rates declines as vertical specialization increases. There is also some limited evidence that this elasticity increases as intra-industry trade increases. Taken together, our findings suggest that global supply chains are more important than intra-industry trade in examining the response of trade balances to real exchange rate changes. Importantly, these heterogeneous impacts imply that policies regarding exchange rate management may be of limited potency and will affect different industries in different ways.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exchange Rates and Trade Balances: Effects of Intra-Industry Trade and Vertical Specialization

Neumann

Tabrizy

2021

Open Econ Rev

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“…Bunlar; Çelik ve Kaya ( 2010 2019) ise çalışmalarında, dış ticaret dengesi ile döviz kuru arasında asimetrik bir ilişki bulmuşlardır. Demiral (2016), Öngör Horata (2019) döviz kurunun etkilerini pozitif bulurken, Öngör Horata (2019) Türkiye'nin gelirini anlamsız, ortaklarının gelirinin dış ticaret dengesi üzerine etkisini pozitif bulmuştur. Demiral (2016), Akkaya (2018) çalışmalarında ise, Türkiye'nin gelirinin negatif, ortaklarının gelirinin dış ticaret dengesi üzerine etkisini pozitif bulmuştur.…”

Section: Li̇teratür Taramasiunclassified

“…Demiral (2016), Öngör Horata (2019) döviz kurunun etkilerini pozitif bulurken, Öngör Horata (2019) Türkiye'nin gelirini anlamsız, ortaklarının gelirinin dış ticaret dengesi üzerine etkisini pozitif bulmuştur. Demiral (2016), Akkaya (2018) çalışmalarında ise, Türkiye'nin gelirinin negatif, ortaklarının gelirinin dış ticaret dengesi üzerine etkisini pozitif bulmuştur. Bal ve Demiral (2012) çalışmalarında, Türkiye-Almanya ticaret dengesini incelemişler ve döviz kuru etkisini kısa dönemde negatif, uzun dönemde pozitif bulmuşlardır.…”

Section: Li̇teratür Taramasiunclassified

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Türki̇yeni̇n İhracat Ve İthalat Kompozi̇syonunun Diş Ti̇caret Dengesi̇ Üzeri̇ne Etki̇si̇: Ab-15 Ülkeleri̇ İçi̇n İki̇ Yönlü Panel Anali̇zi̇

Demir

2020

Balıkesir Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi

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Memduh Alper DEMİR 1ÖZ: Literatürde yer alan birçok çalışmaya göre gelir ve döviz kurunun dış ticaret dengesinin temel belirleyicileri oldukları görülmektedir. Ancak, sadece gelir ve kurun değil, ayrıca bir ülkenin ihracat ve ithalat kompozisyonları da o ülkenin dış ticaret dengesini etkileyebilmektedir. Bu çerçevede çalışmada, gümrük birliği sonrası dönemde Türkiye'nin ihracat ve ithalat kompozisyonun Avrupa Birliği-15 (AB-15) ülkeleri ile olan iki yönlü dış ticaret dengesine etkisi incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın dönemi 1997-2018 arasıdır. Çalışmada ihracat kompozisyonu, Türkiye'nin AB-15 ülkesinden herhangi birine yaptığı tekstil, giyim eşyası, deri ve ilgili ürünler, gıda ürünleri, içecekler ve tütün mamulleri ihracatının o ülkeye yaptığı toplam ihracat içindeki payıdır. İthalat kompozisyonu ise Türkiye'nin AB-15 ülkelerinden herhangi birinden yaptığı orta ve orta-yüksek AR-GE yoğun ürün ithalatının o ülkeden yaptığı toplam ithalat içindeki payıdır. Ayrıca, geleneksel teoriye uygun olarak döviz kuru ve gelir değişkenleri modele ilave edilmiştir. Panel regresyon teknikleri sonuçlarına göre ihracat kompozisyonu dış ticaret dengesini negatif, ithalat kompozisyonu ise pozitif etkilemektedir. Ayrıca, Kónya panel nedensellik testleri sayesinde ülke bazlı ihracat kompozisyonundan ve ithalat kompozisyonlarından dış ticaret dengesine doğru nedensellik incelenerek katsayı ve işaret sonuçları ortaya konulmuştur. Panel regresyon ve nedensellik sonuçlarına göre politika önerileri ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır.

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Impacts of Regional Integration and Market Liberalization on Bilateral Trade Balances of Selected East African Countries: Potential Implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area

Onono,

Omondi,

Mwangangi

2024

Economies

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This study examined the effect of free trade on intra-African bilateral trade balances for Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania to assess the potential implications of the African Continental Free Trade area. The four countries have experienced persistent trade deficits. Whether free trade within Africa can improve the national trade balances, and the drivers of bilateral trade balances are important questions for policy and strategic programmes for the countries to make the most gains from free trade area. The econometric model estimated for each country is an extension of the standard Keynesian model of trade balance to include determinants of bilateral trade flows from the gravity model. Quantitative analysis using panel regression was augmented with qualitative data from interviews with trade policy experts and trade officials from various African countries and focus group discussions with small-scale cross-border traders at the Busia and Namanga border posts in East Africa. Findings show that complete tariff elimination on intra–African trade may not impact the bilateral trade balances of Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania but could improve bilateral trade balances for Uganda by 6 percent. Within the free trade areas, Uganda’s bilateral trade balances were higher within the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa but lower within the East African Community, than outside these areas. Kenya’s trade balances were lower in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, than otherwise. On the contrary, no significant difference in trade balances is established for the membership of Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania in the East African Community; Rwanda in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa; and Tanzania in the Southern African Development Community, when compared to trade balances with non-members. The importance of macroeconomic factors is demonstrated by the increase in bilateral trade balances with higher relative price levels of trade partners; the reduction with increase in relative production and expenditure capacities of trade partners; and improvements following a depreciation of home currency for Tanzania and Uganda, yet a worsening of trade balances in Kenya. A lack of harmony in documents required for cross-border movements within the free trade areas is reported as counterproductive. All African countries should therefore fully implement protocols and cooperate in the harmonization of trade procedures for the free movement of people and goods across borders. Country policies and trade programmes should pursue increased productivity in the leading intra-African export sectors and diversify exports via foreign direct investment in strategic sectors to substitute imports from outside Africa; reduce costs of production; increase the quality of products; and improve transport infrastructure.

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Currency Depreciation, Trade Balance and Intra-Industry Trade Interactions in Turkey’s OECD Trade

Cited by 3 publications

References 40 publications

Exchange Rates and Trade Balances: Effects of Intra-Industry Trade and Vertical Specialization

Exchange Rates and Trade Balances: Effects of Intra-Industry Trade and Vertical Specialization

Türki̇yeni̇n İhracat Ve İthalat Kompozi̇syonunun Diş Ti̇caret Dengesi̇ Üzeri̇ne Etki̇si̇: Ab-15 Ülkeleri̇ İçi̇n İki̇ Yönlü Panel Anali̇zi̇

Impacts of Regional Integration and Market Liberalization on Bilateral Trade Balances of Selected East African Countries: Potential Implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area

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