Cumulative incidence and diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection in New York

Abstract

New York State (NYS) is an epicenter of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States. Reliable estimates of cumulative incidence in the population are critical to tracking the extent of transmission and informing policies. Methods: We conducted a statewide seroprevalence study in a 15,101 patron convenience sample at 99 grocery stores in 26 counties throughout NYS. SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence was estimated from antibody reactivity by first poststratification weighting and then adjusting by antibody test characteristics. The percent diagnosed was estimated by dividing the number of diagnoses by the number of estimated infection-experienced adults. Results: Based on 1887 of 15,101 (12.5%) reactive results, estimated cumulative incidence through March 29 was 14.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.3%e14.7%), corresponding to 2,139,300 (95% CI: 2,035,800 e2,242,800) infection-experienced adults. Cumulative incidence was highest in New York City 22.7% (95% CI: 21.5%e24.0%) and higher among Hispanic/Latino (29.2%), non-Hispanic black/African American (20.2%), and non-Hispanic Asian (12.4%) than non-Hispanic white adults (8.1%, P < .0001). An estimated 8.9% (95% CI: 8.4%e9.3%) of infections in NYS were diagnosed, with diagnosis highest among adults aged 55 years or older (11.3%, 95% CI: 10.4%e12.2%). Conclusions: From the largest U.S. serosurvey to date, we estimated >2 million adult New York residents were infected through late March, with substantial disparities, although cumulative incidence remained less than herd immunity thresholds. Monitoring, testing, and contact tracing remain essential public health strategies.

Seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among Veterans Affairs healthcare system employees suggests higher risk of infection when exposed to SARS-CoV-2 outside the work environment

“…For instance, one study of cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City through March 29, 2020, showed an incidence of 23%. 10 No PPE shortages occurred at our facility. Washtenaw and Wayne counties, where our VA facility is located and where the largest proportion of study participants reside, reported positive testing rates of 3.27%-5.34% as of July 8, 2020, based on RT-PCR testing.…”

Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for COVID-19 using a Time-Shifted Distribution Analysis

“…The copyright holder for this this version posted October 27, 2020. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.25.20216671 doi: medRxiv preprint comparison, a Worldometers calculation estimated an IFR of 1.4% in New York City in May [23], using a prevalence ratio of ten from an early antibody study [36,37].…”

Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2

“…Seroprevalence surveys provide valuable information on the proportion of the population that have ever experienced an infection [7][8][9][10] , however, they can be subject to a number of biases and variable performance of different assays can complicate comparisons of results across studies 11 . Here, we present a model framework that integrates age-specific COVID-19 death data from 45 countries with 22 national-level seroprevalence surveys, providing new insights into the…”