Cumulative disparities in the dynamics of working poverty for later-career U.S. workers (2002-2012)

Hale, Jo Mhairi; Dudel, Christian; Lorenti, Angelo

doi:10.4054/mpidr-wp-2020-028

Cited by 1 publication

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“…Based on longitudinal data, the rates or the probabilities of transitioning between states are estimated and used to calculate quantities such as the expected lifetime spent in a specific state. Applications of multistate models include transitions between labor force states (Harris, Zhao, and Zuccheli 2021;Hayward and Lichter 1998;Lorenti et al 2020), change of family status (Bonetti, Piccaretta, and Salford 2013;Schoen, Landale, and Daniels 2007;Studer, Struffolino, and Fasang 2018), poverty dynamics (Bernstein et al 2018;Hale, Dudel, and Lorenti 2021), and migration (Klabunde et al 2017;Raymer, Willekens, and Rogers 2019;Vega and Brazil 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How bad could it be? Worst-case bounds on bias in multistate models due to unobserved transitions

Dudel

Schneider

2021

Sociological Methods & Research

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Multistate models are often used in social research to analyze how individuals move between states. A typical application is the estimation of the lifetime spent in a certain state, like the lifetime spent in employment, or the lifetime spent in good health. Unfortunately, the estimation of such quantities is prone to several biases. In this paper, we study the bias due to the often implicitly used assumption that there are no unobserved transitions between states. This assumption does often not hold for the panel data typically used to estimate multistate models, as the states occupied by individuals are only known at specific points in time, and further transitions between panel waves are not recorded. We present partially identified estimates of the lifetime spent in a state, or worse-case bounds, which show the maximum possible level of bias due to unobserved transitions. We provide two examples studying the lifetime spent in disability (disabled life expectancy; DLE). The first example applies our methods to results on cohort trends in DLE in the U.S. taken from Crimmins et al. (2009). In the second example, we replicate findings from Mehta and Myrskylä (2017), and apply our methods to data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study (HRS) in order to estimate the effects of health behaviors on DLE.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How bad could it be? Worst-case bounds on bias in multistate models due to unobserved transitions

Dudel

Schneider

2021

Sociological Methods & Research

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Cumulative disparities in the dynamics of working poverty for later-career U.S. workers (2002-2012)

Abstract: Working papers of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed in working papers are attributable to the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute.

Cited by 1 publication

References 64 publications

How bad could it be? Worst-case bounds on bias in multistate models due to unobserved transitions

How bad could it be? Worst-case bounds on bias in multistate models due to unobserved transitions

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