Cultural Evolution of Sustainable Behaviors: Pro-Environmental Tipping Points in an Agent-Based Model

Abstract

To reach sustainability transitions, we must learn to leverage social systems into tipping points, where societies exhibit positive feedback loops in the adoption of sustainable behavioural or cultural traits. For instance, future sustainability transitions are often portrayed as having roughly ‘S-shaped’ timelines, introducing pro-environmental lifestyles at an increasingly fast rate until a new sustainable state is reached. However, much less is known about the most efficient ways to reach such transitions, or how self-reinforcing systemic transformations might be instigated through means of policy.This research article models behaviour as the function of the person and their environment. We employ an agent-based model to study the emergence of social tipping points through five interconnected factors which have been previously identified to constitute an ecological approach to human behaviour. These are 1. affordances (action opportunities provided by the physical environment), 2. asocial learning and habituation, 3. personal states (such as intentions and habits), 4. cultural niche construction, and 5. social learning in a social network.Our model suggests that even a linear introduction of pro-environmental affordances to a social system can have non-linear self-reinforcing effects on the emergence of collective pro-environmental behaviour patterns. We also conduct empirical validation with a case study, validating the model against data of the evolution of cycling and driving behaviours in central Copenhagen. Our model gives further evidence and justification for policies that make pro-environmental behaviour psychologically salient, easy, and the path of least resistance.

Practical lessons for creating affordance-based interventions for sustainable behavior change

“…The growing threat of abrupt and irreversible adverse tipping points in climate change 13 and other Earth Systems 3 suggest that radical, nonlinear and collective change in human behavior is required to counter these processes. This nonlinear assumption is often embodied in models of sustainable development, which assume behavior change (and, e.g., related clean technology adoption or emission reduction) to follow a roughly S-shaped timeline, where societies reach self-reinforcing changes in collective behavior patterns, eventually settling down in a new sustainable state 1,[14][15][16] . In practice, achieving such a transition requires the triggering of social tipping points, or self-reinforcing and nonlinear changes in collective behavior patterns [14][15][16] .…”

“…This nonlinear assumption is often embodied in models of sustainable development, which assume behavior change (and, e.g., related clean technology adoption or emission reduction) to follow a roughly S-shaped timeline, where societies reach self-reinforcing changes in collective behavior patterns, eventually settling down in a new sustainable state 1,[14][15][16] . In practice, achieving such a transition requires the triggering of social tipping points, or self-reinforcing and nonlinear changes in collective behavior patterns [14][15][16] . Social tipping points, in turn, require tapping into the various feedback-loops that trigger selfreinforcing cultural evolution (as elaborated below) 14 .…”

“…In practice, achieving such a transition requires the triggering of social tipping points, or self-reinforcing and nonlinear changes in collective behavior patterns [14][15][16] . Social tipping points, in turn, require tapping into the various feedback-loops that trigger selfreinforcing cultural evolution (as elaborated below) 14 .…”

“…To pinpoint a few barriers, unsustainable modes of collective behavior are entrenched in social norms and habits 14,17 , ecologically harmful behaviors are reinforced by existing infrastructures, technological path-dependencies, institutional lock-ins, and incentive systems 14,18,19 , and good intentions are impeded by structural, political, and economic factors 18,20 . Despite much recent work around social tipping points in sustainable behaviors [14][15][16] , there is still a considerable gap in our understanding of how these barriers may be overcome and how social tipping points may be hastened through practical interventions. In this work, we particularly focus on the barrier of infrastructure and material environments, and how they can be leveraged towards sustainable outcomes through the practice of design.…”

“…For example, critical research in environmental psychology has noted that there is a general tendency in behavioral research to study individualistic and short-term actions with relatively low potential for greenhouse gas emission reduction 21,22 . Focusing only on individual cognitions, motivations or behaviors is insufficient when considering the full scope of social and contextual factors that enable or inhibit the emergence of pro-environmental behaviors 4,14 . For example, the role of the material and physical environment is often underappreciated when it comes to understanding behavior patternsif suitable affordances (Box 1) or opportunities for sustainable behavior do not exist, sustainable behaviors will rarely emerge 14,18,23 .…”