CT image-based biomarkers for opportunistic screening of osteoporotic fractures: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

The use of opportunistic computed tomography (CT) image-based biomarkers may be a low-cost strategy for screening older individuals at high risk for osteoporotic fractures and populations that are not sufficiently targeted. This review aimed to assess the discriminative ability of image-based biomarkers derived from existing clinical routine CT scans for hip, vertebral, and major osteoporotic fracture prediction. A systematic search in PubMed MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, and Web of Science was conducted from the earliest indexing date until July 2023. The evaluation of study quality was carried out using a modified Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) checklist. The primary outcome of interest was the area under the curve (AUC) and its corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) obtained for four main categories of biomarkers: areal bone mineral density (BMD), image attenuation, volumetric BMD, and finite element (FE)-derived biomarkers. The meta-analyses were performed using random effects models. Sixty-one studies were included in this review, among which 35 were synthesized in a meta-analysis and the remaining articles were qualitatively synthesized. In comparison to the pooled AUC of areal BMD (0.73 [95% CI 0.71–0.75]), the pooled AUC values for predicting osteoporotic fractures for FE-derived parameters (0.77 [95% CI 0.72–0.81]; p < 0.01) and volumetric BMD (0.76 [95% CI 0.71–0.81]; p < 0.01) were significantly higher, but there was no significant difference with the pooled AUC for image attenuation (0.73 [95% CI 0.66–0.79]; p = 0.93). Compared to areal BMD, volumetric BMD and FE-derived parameters may provide a significant improvement in the discrimination of osteoporotic fractures using opportunistic CT assessments. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00198-024-07029-0.