Crop switching can enhance environmental sustainability and farmer incomes in China

Xie, Wei; Zhu, Anfeng; Ali, Tariq; Zhang, Zhengtao; Chen, Xiaoguang; Wu, Feng; Huang, Jikun; Davis, Kyle Frankel

doi:10.1038/s41586-023-05799-x

Cited by 77 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Since the impacts of RFtoIF transition propagate downstream, constraining urban-rural conflicts [55][56][57][58][59] may require update and/or formulation of innovative basin-scale water apportioning doctrines and compacts. Alternative solutions to mitigate these negative impacts include changing cropping pattern and practices [17,88,89], and enhancing the sustainability of virtual water trade [90][91][92].…”

Section: Discussion and Synthesismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Achieving this ambitious goal is further complicated by the impacts of climate change, which affect food production and pose challenges to global food security [8,9]. Several strategies are being practiced or explored to increase the crop productivity and making it more resilient [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. Among these, a prominent option is through the expansion and intensification of irrigated agriculture [18][19][20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Water scarcity challenges across urban regions with expanding irrigation

Rathore,

Kumar,

Hanasaki

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Irrigation expansion is often posed as a promising option to enhance food security. Here, we assess the influence of expansion of irrigation, primarily in rural areas of the contiguous United States (CONUS), on the intensification and spatial proliferation of freshwater scarcity. Results show RFtoIF transition will result in an additional 169.6 million hectares or 22% of the total CONUS land area facing moderate or severe water scarcity. Analysis of just the 53 large urban clusters with 146 million residents shows that the transition will result in 97 million urban population facing water scarcity for at least one month per year on average versus 82 million before the irrigation expansion. Notably, none of the six large urban regions facing an increase in scarcity with RFtoIF transition are located in arid regions. in part because the magnitude of impact is dependent on multiple factors including local water demand, abstractions in the river upstream, and the buffering capacity of ancillary water sources to cities. For these reasons, areas with higher population and industrialization also generally experience a relatively smaller change in scarcity than regions with lower water demand. While the exact magnitude of impacts are subject to simulation uncertainties despite efforts to exercise due diligence, the study unambiguously underscores the need for strategies aimed at boosting crop productivity to incorporate the effects on water availability throughout the entire extent of the flow networks, instead of solely focusing on the local level. The results further highlight that if irrigation expansion is poorly managed, it may increase urban water scarcity, thus also possibly increasing the likelihood of water conflict between urban and rural areas.

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Section: Discussion and Synthesismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water scarcity challenges across urban regions with expanding irrigation

Rathore,

Kumar,

Hanasaki

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…The study areas across mainland China have diverse climate environments and complex crop planting structures (Xie et al 2023). According to the cropping system and growth environment, the whole study area was divided into four maize planting subregions, namely, Zone Ⅰ, Zone Ⅱ, Zone Ⅲ and Zone Ⅳ (Fig.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of extreme climate stress across China’s maize harvest region in CMIP6 simulations

Xiao,

Shi,

Chen

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of climate extremes, which will negatively impact crop production. As one of the main food and feed crops, maize is also vulnerable to extreme climate events. In order to accurately and comprehensively assess the future climate risk to maize, it is urgent to project and evaluate the stress of extreme climate related maize production under future climate scenarios. In this study, we comprehensively evaluated the spatio-temporal changes in the frequency and intensity of six extreme climate indices (ECIs) across China’s maize harvest region by using a multi-model ensemble method, and examined the capability of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to capture these variations. We found that the Independence Weight Mean (IWM) ensemble results calculated by multiple Global Change Models (GCMs) with bias correction could better reproduce each ECI. The results indicated that heat stress for maize showed consistent increase trends under four future climate scenarios in the 21st century. The intensity and frequency of the three extreme temperature indices in 2080s were significantly higher than these in 2040s, and in the high emission scenario were significantly higher than these in the low emission scenario. The three extreme precipitation indices changed slightly in the future, but the spatial changes were relatively prominent. Overall, the temporal characteristics and trends of extreme temperature events were consistent, while the spatial heterogeneity of extreme precipitation events was more significant.

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“…In practice, some human activities can mitigate the negative effects of natural conditions on NPP to some extent. For example, extensive agricultural activities significantly influence carbon absorption and carbon storage in agricultural ecosystems through artificial control of vegetation and soil, such as fertilization, irrigation, and crop rotation systems [54,55]. Land use changes such as afforestation and deforestation also alter the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems [56].…”

Section: Future Trend Prediction Of Npp Spatiotemporal Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-Temporal Variation and Future Sustainability of Net Primary Productivity from 2001 to 2021 in Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia

Peng,

Li,

Wang

et al. 2024

Agriculture

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The Hetao Irrigation District in Inner Mongolia, a vital grain-producing region in northern China, faces growing environmental challenges. Studying net primary productivity (NPP) is essential for understanding spatiotemporal vegetation shifts and guiding locally adapted restoration and management efforts. Utilizing MOD17A3/NPP data, this study applies the Theil–Sen median trend, Mann–Kendall significance, and the Hurst index to scrutinize the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of NPP from 2001 to 2021 and forecast future changes in the area. The findings reveal cyclic temporal trends, forming a “∧” shape with initial increases followed by decreases, notably during the July to August period each year. The multi-year average NPP exhibits a slight upward fluctuation trend, averaging 172.40 gCm−2a−1. Peaks occur approximately every three years, reaching the highest average in 2012 at 218.96 gCm−2a−1. Spatially, NPP distribution stays consistent over the years, influenced by various land cover types, especially cropland, shaping the spatial patterns. Monthly and yearly NPP trends over the 21 years indicate a significant decrease in May and June, with other months mostly showing a non-significant increase. The Hurst index for monthly and yearly NPP changes over 21 years shows relatively high weak anti-persistence. In summary, over the past 21 years, the NPP trend in the study area has not significantly improved and is expected to decline in the future. This study offers data support and a scientific foundation for refining the carbon cycle model, quantifying vegetation carbon sequestration capacity, addressing climate change policies, and striving for carbon peak and neutrality in the Hetao Irrigation District.

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Crop switching can enhance environmental sustainability and farmer incomes in China

Cited by 77 publications

References 26 publications

Water scarcity challenges across urban regions with expanding irrigation

Water scarcity challenges across urban regions with expanding irrigation

Assessment of extreme climate stress across China’s maize harvest region in CMIP6 simulations

Spatio-Temporal Variation and Future Sustainability of Net Primary Productivity from 2001 to 2021 in Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia

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