Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

Schleußner, Carl-Friedrich; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Saeed, Fahad; Folberth, Christian; Liu, Wenfeng; Wang, Xuhui; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Thiery, Wim; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Rogelj, Joeri

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b

Cited by 94 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…However, the impacts here could be slightly overoptimistic with estimates of heat stress, as most of crop models do not account for well‐established canopy warming under elevated CO 2 (Kimball et al, ; Webber et al, ). Also, Schleussner et al () have shown that CO 2 uncertainties at 1.5 and 2.0°C, which is not considered here, are comparable to the effect of 0.5°C warming increments. This indicated possible differences in impacts on wheat production in the simulated 1.5 or 2.0°C worlds (Seneviratne et al, ), as a transient 1.5 or 2.0°C world may see higher CO 2 concentrations because of the lagged response of the climate system (peak warming around 10 years after zero CO 2 emissions are reached) and differences in aerosol loadings (Wang, Lin, et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…However, the impacts here could be slightly overoptimistic with estimates of heat stress, as most of crop models do not account for well-established canopy warming under elevated CO 2 (Kimball et al, 1999;Webber et al, 2018). Also, Schleussner et al (2018) have shown that CO 2 uncertainties at 1.5 and 2.0°C, which is not considered here, are comparable to the effect of 0.5°C warming increments. This indicated possible differences in F I G U R E 4 Simulated global impacts of climate change scenarios on wheat production.…”

Section: (B)mentioning

confidence: 85%

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Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Liu

Martre

Ewert

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

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128

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Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 75%

Section: (B)mentioning

confidence: 85%

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Liu

Martre

Ewert

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

Self Cite

128

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“…Under climate change conditions, CO 2 fertilization effects on maize growth should also be taken into account. Despite high uncertainties, most experimental and modeling results point to limited CO 2 effects for the C4 crop maize, compared to the other main C3 crops such as wheat and rice (Bassu et al, 2014;Deryng et al, 2014;Kimball, 2016;Makowski et al, 2015;Schleussner et al, 2018;Semenov & Shewry, 2008). Higher CO 2 concentrations potentially increase maize water use efficiency and may alleviate the effects of drought on maize yields (Crafts-Brandner & Salvucci, 2002).…”

Section: 1029/2018ef000995mentioning

confidence: 99%

When Will Current Climate Extremes Affecting Maize Production Become the Norm?

et al. 2019

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We estimate the effects of climate anomalies (heat stress and drought) on annual maize production, variability, and trend from the country level to the global scale using a statistical model. Moderate climate anomalies and extremes are diagnosed with two indicators of heat stress and drought computed over maize growing regions during the most relevant period of maize growth. The calibrated model linearly combines these two indicators into a single Combined Stress Index. The Combined Stress Index explains 50% of the observed global production variability in the period 1980–2010. We apply the model on an ensemble of high‐resolution global climate model simulations. Global maize losses, due to extreme climate events with 10‐year return times during the period 1980–2010, will become the new normal already at 1.5 °C global warming levels (approximately 2020s). At 2 °C warming (late 2030s), maize areas will be affected by heat stress and drought never experienced before, affecting many major and minor production regions.

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“…There is little agreement on the magnitude of the CO 2 fertilization effects on yields (Schleussner et al 2018). Since CLM yield response to CO 2 appears to be strong relative to many other crop models (Ren et al 2018), we consider our default case to represent one end of our uncertainty range.…”

Section: Co 2 Fertilizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Betts et al (2018) evaluated differences in vulnerability to food security, finding that although most countries would be less vulnerable in 1.5°C scenario than with 2°C, 24% of the countries would have the same or higher vulnerability at 1.5°C. AgMIP (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project) has organized multi-model studies to assess impacts at these levels of warming in the context of climate, crop, and economic uncertainties (Rosenzweig et al 2018, Ruane et al 2018, Schleussner et al 2018. In all these studies, climate outcomes for 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios are approximated from existing higher climate scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP4.5 or RCP2.6) rather than using stabilized climate simulations at these levels 4 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic and biophysical impacts on agriculture under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming

Ren

Lü

O’Neill

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The goal of limiting global mean warming to well below 2°C, and possibly to 1.5°C, emerged in the Paris Agreement, motivated by the belief that achieving these targets 'would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change'. Understanding the climate impacts of relatively low levels of warming, in particular whether there are substantial benefits to reducing emissions to limit warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, is important for informing climate policy, but such studies are scarce. Here we evaluate the difference in global biophysical and economic impacts related to agriculture between 1.5°C-2°C warming. Given the small difference in global average temperature, accounting for uncertainties is important, and we include key uncertainties in three main components of the analysis: climate system (regional climate variability), biophysical system (crop response to CO 2 fertilization), and economic system (trade responsiveness). We are unable to meaningfully distinguish the regional agricultural impacts occurring with 1.5°C warming from those occurring with 2°C warming when accounting for these uncertainties. Under some assumptions 1.5°C implies benefits relative to 2°C, while under others it implies costs. Results are most sensitive to the uncertainty in the effect of CO 2 fertilization on crop yield.

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Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

Cited by 94 publications

References 44 publications

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

When Will Current Climate Extremes Affecting Maize Production Become the Norm?

Economic and biophysical impacts on agriculture under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming

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