Crop production in northwestern Ethiopian highlands under changing climate

Abstract

Climate change is the most serious threat to agricultural productivity. Ethiopia's agricultural sector is affected by climate change. The northern part of Ethiopia is among the drought prone and topographically diversified areas. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of climate change on crop yields, assess the pattern of rainfall maximum and lowest temperatures and assess the trajectory of selected crop yields. Historical weather station and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) power data were collected from 1981 to 2020. The Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen's slope (SS) method estimator were employed to estimate the trends and the direction of the trend. RClimDex package is used for climate extreme analysis. Nine rainfall and 11 temperature indices from a list of 27 extreme rainfall and temperature indices were used. The study found that the rainfall showed a significant decreasing and insignificant decreasing trend in Farta and Yilmana Densa districts, respectively. Maximum and minimum temperatures in both sites showed increasing trends. Rainfall happenings become more unanticipated, owing to the precipitation concentration index and anomaly trends. The majority of the indicators for extreme rainfall at both sites showed a downward trend. With the exception of the duration of cold spells, the annual lowest value of the daily minimum temperature, cold days and cold nights, the majority of the extreme temperature indices at both sites showed an increasing trend. The principal crop yields were connected with rainfall and temperature fluctuation, according to Pearson's product–moment correlation results, although the effects varied by crop and region. In summary, rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation may have a negative influence on agricultural activities, especially crop productivity.