Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world

Bebber, Daniel P.; Ramotowski, Mark A. T.; Gurr, Sarah J.

doi:10.1038/nclimate1990

Cited by 711 publications

(508 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Given these changes, it is likely that Mexican farmers will find considerably impoverished supply sources when they search again for innovations should their seed become increasingly maladapted to changing climate, pests, and diseases (21)(22)(23). Lack of suitable alternatives could prevent mitigation of expected yield decreases (22), reducing the benefits of growing maize vis-à-vis more readily available livelihood options, including migration.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the possible effect of climate change cannot be discounted (21)(22)(23)(24), changes in varietal richness per farm must be explained first and foremost as a result of farmers' decisions. There is no reason to expect these decisions to reflect environmental variation along a geographic gradient.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This would likely lead to greater farm turnover and loss of diversity within the sector just as the relevance of in situ conservation increases. Unlike germplasm banks, in situ conservation allows crops to evolve in response to changing pests and diseases, such as those occurring with climate change (9,23). Significantly, maize genetic diversity is the centerpiece of national and international strategies to safeguard food security as the climate changes (30).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Genetic erosion in maize’s center of origin

Dyer

López‐Feldman

Yunez-Naude

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Crop genetic diversity is an indispensable resource for farmers and professional breeders responding to changing climate, pests, and diseases. Anecdotal appraisals in centers of crop origin have suggested serious threats to this diversity for over half a century. However, a nationwide inventory recently found all maize races previously described for Mexico, including some formerly considered nearly extinct. A flurry of social studies seems to confirm that farmers maintain considerable diversity. Here, we compare estimates of maize diversity from case studies over the past 15 y with nationally and regionally representative matched longitudinal data from farmers across rural Mexico. Our findings reveal an increasing bias in inferences based on case study results and widespread loss of diversity. Cross-sectional, case study data suggest that farm-level richness has increased by 0.04 y −1 nationwide; however, direct estimates using matched longitudinal data reveal that richness dropped −0.04 y −1 between 2002 and 2007, from 1.43 to 1.22 varieties per farm. Varietal losses occurred across regions and altitudinal zones, and regardless of farm turnover within the sector. Extinction of local maize populations may not have resulted in an immediate loss of alleles, but low varietal richness and changes in maize's metapopulation dynamics may prevent farmers from accessing germplasm suitable to a rapidly changing climate. Declining yields could then lead farmers to leave the sector and result in a further loss of diversity. Similarities in research approaches across crops suggest that methodological biases could conceal a loss of diversity at other centers of crop origin.in situ conservation | crop evolution | climate change | corn

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Genetic erosion in maize’s center of origin

Dyer

López‐Feldman

Yunez-Naude

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Not only will warming climates lead to shifts in the areas suitable for agricultural production, but it will also likely lead to range expansions of tropical pests, increases in pest numbers and damage, with a parallel risk of a drop in the efficacy of pest suppression by natural enemies that might be negatively affected by climate change (Thomson et al 2010;Bebber et al 2013). Such changes will make the ecosystem services provided by generalist predators like insectivorous bats more valuable than ever before.…”

Section: Pest Suppression In the Face Of Climate Change Pesticidesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bats in the Anthropogenic Matrix: Challenges and Opportunities for the Conservation of Chiroptera and Their Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Landscapes

Williams‐Guillén

Olimpi

Maas

et al. 2015

Bats in the Anthropocene: Conservation of Bats in a Changing World

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Intensification in land-use and farming practices has had largely negative effects on bats, leading to population declines and concomitant losses of ecosystem services. Current trends in land-use change suggest that agricultural areas will further expand, while production systems may either experience further intensification (particularly in developing nations) or become more environmentally friendly (especially in Europe). In this chapter, we review the existing literature

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“…In contrast, employing partial genome sequences for phylogenetic analysis can produce misleading phylogenetic trees, which, when recombination occurs, often result in incorrect deductions about the positioning of isolates in within-species phylogenetic groups [18][19][20]29]. Other factors increasingly impacting on the sequences that make up within-species phylogenetic groups include emergence of known and novel viruses in new hosts or world regions driven by (i) new encounters between wild and crop plants at interfaces between wild and managed vegetation, (ii) rapidly expanding world trade in plants and plant products moving viruses and vectors around the world, (iii) agricultural intensification, extensification and diversification underway to feed the burgeoning world population, (iv) encroaching urbanization as population centers expand, and (v) climate change causing plant viruses to adapt, shift hosts and change their geographical distributions [1,3,4,7,[10][11][12][13][14]24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A proposal to rationalize within-species plant virus nomenclature: benefits and implications of inaction

Jones

Kehoe

2016

Arch Virol

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Current approaches used to name within-species, plant virus phylogenetic groups are often misleading and illogical. They involve names based on biological properties, sequence differences and geographical, country or placeassociation designations, or any combination of these. This type of nomenclature is becoming increasingly unsustainable as numbers of sequences of the same virus from new host species and different parts of the world increase. Moreover, this increase is accelerating as world trade and agriculture expand, and climate change progresses. Serious consequences for virus research and disease management might arise from incorrect assumptions made when current within-species phylogenetic group names incorrectly identify properties of group members. This could result in development of molecular tools that incorrectly target dangerous virus strains, potentially leading to unjustified impediments to international trade or failure to prevent such strains being introduced to countries, regions or continents formerly free of them. Dangerous strains might be missed or misdiagnosed by diagnostic laboratories and monitoring programs, and new cultivars with incorrect strain-specific resistances released. Incorrect deductions are possible during phylogenetic analysis of plant virus sequences and errors from strain misidentification during molecular and biological virus research activities. A nomenclature system for within-species plant virus phylogenetic group names is needed which avoids such problems. We suggest replacing all other naming approaches with Latinized numerals, restricting biologically based names only to biological strains and removing geographically based names altogether. Our recommendations have implications for biosecurity authorities, diagnostic laboratories, diseasemanagement programs, plant breeders and researchers.

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Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world

Cited by 711 publications

References 30 publications

Genetic erosion in maize’s center of origin

Genetic erosion in maize’s center of origin

Bats in the Anthropogenic Matrix: Challenges and Opportunities for the Conservation of Chiroptera and Their Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Landscapes

A proposal to rationalize within-species plant virus nomenclature: benefits and implications of inaction

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