Criticality assessment risk; contribution of fuzzy logic

Abstract

In order to determine the criticality of a risk, an assessment of the probability of occurrence (notion of frequency) and of the impact (notion of severity) are to be estimated. The criticality is the product of the probability of its occurrence and the impact that the risk has on the project, hence on the whole company. So, the practice of matrix or the criticality grid considering these two dimensions is necessary. However, the criticality grid involves the insufficiencies inherent to the subjective behavior of expert judgments and to the imprecise information engaged in the assessment of the risk. Taking into account the problems of the imperfection implied in the Conventional Criticality Matrix (CCM), the objective of this work is to develop a Fuzzy Criticality Matrix (FCM) to overcome these difficulties. The proposed model aims at improving the system of fuzzy inference. The proposed approach is applied to a test system which is the company SAROST S.A.