Critical timing and extent of public health interventions to control outbreaks dominated by SARS-CoV-2 variants in Australia: a mathematical modelling study

Zou, Zhuoru; Fairley, Christopher K; Shen, Mingwang; Scott, Nick; Xu, Xianglong; Li, Zengbin; Li, Rui; Zhuang, Guihua; Zhang, Lei

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2021.11.024

Cited by 14 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…This is supported by an earlier study which demonstrated that during the first wave of the COVID‐19 outbreak in Thailand, the peak of the outbreak occurred one week following the introduction of the intervention, reinforcing the need for timely interventions 34 . Furthermore, daily cases will continue to rise until the effective reproduction number ( R e ), – the number of susceptible people in a population who can be infected by an individual is reduced to below one 33 …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

The impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions on COVID‐19 cases in South Australia and Victoria

Milazzo

Giles

Parent

et al. 2022

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health

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Objective: To assess the impact of different non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID‐19 cases across Victoria and South Australia. Methods: Poisson regression models were fit to examine the effect of NPIs on weekly COVID‐19 case numbers. Results: Mask‐wearing in Victoria had a pronounced lag effect of two weeks with an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 0.27 (95%CI 0.26–0.29). Similarly, the effect of border closure (IRR 0.18; 95%CI 0.14–0.22) in South Australia and lockdown (IRR 0.88; 95%CI 0.86–0.91) in Victoria showed a decrease in incidence two weeks after the introduction of these interventions. Conclusions: With the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic, varying levels of vaccination coverage rates and threats from variants of concern, NPIs are likely to remain in place. It is thus important to validate the effectiveness and timing of different interventions for disease control, as those that are more restrictive such as border control and lockdown can have an enormous impact on society. Implications for public health: Low case numbers and deaths in Australia's first wave of COVID‐19 are thought to be due to the timely use of interventions. The observed two‐week lag effect associated with a decrease in incidence provides justification for early implementation of NPIs for COVID‐19 management and future pandemics.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

The impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions on COVID‐19 cases in South Australia and Victoria

Milazzo

Giles

Parent

et al. 2022

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health

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“…However, the effectiveness of these measures has been questioned [21] , [25] , [26] , [27] . It is likely that the effectiveness is dependent on a number of cofactors, including, type of containment measure, the degree of enforcement, public attitude and acceptance, extent of infection in the population, and the degree of testing [21] , [28] , [29] , [30] , [31] . Modeling studies have indicated the importance of early implementation of restrictions; delays as little as a few weeks after an outbreak can have an unrecoverable impact on viral transmission [31] , [32] .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is likely that the effectiveness is dependent on a number of cofactors, including, type of containment measure, the degree of enforcement, public attitude and acceptance, extent of infection in the population, and the degree of testing [21] , [28] , [29] , [30] , [31] . Modeling studies have indicated the importance of early implementation of restrictions; delays as little as a few weeks after an outbreak can have an unrecoverable impact on viral transmission [31] , [32] . The findings from this study reveal that conventional control strategies such as lockdowns, stay at home requests and school closures could not completely stop the transmission chain of SARS-CoV-2 in most of the countries studied.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have demonstrated that government interventions can potentially reduce the peak number of COVID-19 cases [15] , [34] , [35] . However, the timing of implementation and duration will influence the outcome [31] , [32] . Other studies have echoed the ineffectiveness of physical measures by assessing the impact of full lockdown strategies applied in some western countries [25] , [26] .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effectiveness of containment strategies in preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Leung

Zhang

Hashim

et al. 2022

Journal of Infection and Public Health

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“…Identifying the epidemic trend in Ethiopia will help inform future prevention and control of the epidemic. Modeling studies have been widely used to investigate the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic and evaluate relevant interventions ( 21 – 27 ). Previous studies demonstrated that the epidemic's early characteristics are useful in projecting the subsequent epidemics ( 28 , 29 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early and Subsequent Epidemic Characteristics of COVID-19 and Their Impact on the Epidemic Size in Ethiopia

Amhare

Tao

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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In Ethiopia, multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemic have been observed. So far, no studies have investigated the characteristics of the waves of epidemic waves in the country. Identifying the epidemic trend in Ethiopia will inform future prevention and control of COVID-19. This study aims to identify the early indicators and the characteristics of multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemics and their impact on the overall epidemic size in Ethiopia. We employed the Jointpoint software to identify key epidemic characteristics in the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic and a simple logistic growth model to identify epidemic characteristics of its subsequent waves. Among the first 100 reported cases in Ethiopia, we identified a slow-growing phase (0.37 [CI: 0.10–0.78] cases/day), which was followed by a fast-growing phase (1.18 [0.50–2.00] cases/day). The average turning point from slow to fast-growing phase was at 18 days after first reported. We identified two subsequent waves of COVID-19 in Ethiopia during 03/2020-04/2021. We estimated the number of COVID-19 cases that occurred during the second wave (157,064 cases) was >2 times more than the first (60,016 cases). The second wave's duration was longer than the first (116 vs. 96 days). As of April 30th, 2021, the overall epidemic size in Ethiopia was 794/100,000, ranging from 1,669/100,000 in the Harari region to 40/100,000 in the Somali region. The epidemic size was significantly and positively correlated with the day of the phase turning point (r = 0.750, P = 0.008), the estimated number of cases in wave one (r = 0.854, P < 0.001), and wave two (r = 0.880, P < 0.001). The second wave of COVID-19 in Ethiopia is far greater, and its duration is longer than the first. Early phase turning point and case numbers in the subsequent waves predict its overall epidemic size.

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Critical timing and extent of public health interventions to control outbreaks dominated by SARS-CoV-2 variants in Australia: a mathematical modelling study

Cited by 14 publications

References 41 publications

The impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions on COVID‐19 cases in South Australia and Victoria

The impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions on COVID‐19 cases in South Australia and Victoria

Effectiveness of containment strategies in preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Early and Subsequent Epidemic Characteristics of COVID-19 and Their Impact on the Epidemic Size in Ethiopia

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