Critical success factors for government-led foresight

Abstract

This paper reports on an integrated research program involving three related studies that examined successful foresight programs. It analyzes the key factors that appear to determine whether or not foresight, once launched by a government, can be successful. The study was performed by a team of researchers in Canada in the period 2005-2007. It found eight key factors, beyond the usual ones associated with the application of leading edge methods. The overall conclusion is that the methodology, appropriate budget and techniques alone are insufficient factors to explain the success of foresight programs. The interview results indicate that success is ultimately defined as the impact of the foresight exercise on government policy, and as the growth of the foresight function. Taken together, the results should help organizations establish the parameters for a successful foresight program.

Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight

“…B Translate and transfer FTA outputs into policy and decision outcomes. Calof and Smith (2008) caution that:…”

The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: Addressing the Cassandra challenge

“…A paper by Calof and Smith at the 2008 International Seville FTA Conference [3] concludes ''methodology, appropriate budget and techniques alone are insufficient to result in foresight program success. To be regarded as successful, government led foresight programs need to focus on a clearly identified client, there needs to be a clear link between the foresight (topic and process) and the government's policy agenda''.…”

“…Experience from the UK foresight program points towards the value of a significant period of 'aftercare', 2 but there is also value in selecting topics that are likely to arouse strong interest. 3 The challenge for high impact FTA is to select issues that have both a long time horizon, but also some relatively short-term and practicable policy actions.…”

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“…Последняя должна также замыкаться на руководи-телей высокого уровня, отвечающих за формирова-ние политики, основываться на новой методологии и содержать элемент частно-государственного парт-нерства» [Calof, Smith, 2008].…”