Critical dynamics related to a recent Bitcoin crash

Zitis, Pavlos I.; Contoyiannis, Yiannis; Potirakis, Stelios M.

doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102368

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…from which it follows that p ∈ (0.66, 1) [21]. At this point, it should be mentioned that when the distribution of the waiting times follows a power law with an exponent p ∈ (0, 0.66) it probably refers to some subcritical region without clear boundaries that can be predicted by the theory, and it does not indicate criticality (critical or tricritical point).…”

Section: The 3d Ising Model and Its Waiting Timesmentioning

confidence: 92%

Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking in Systems Obeying the Dynamics of On–Off Intermittency and Presenting Bimodal Amplitude Distributions

et al. 2023

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In this work, first, it is confirmed that a recently introduced symbolic time-series-analysis method based on the prime-numbers-based algorithm (PNA), referred to as the “PNA-based symbolic time-series analysis method” (PNA-STSM), can accurately determine the exponent of the distribution of waiting times in the symbolic dynamics of two symbols produced by the 3D Ising model in its critical state. After this numerical verification of the reliability of PNA-STSM, three examples of how PNA-STSM can be applied to the category of systems that obey the dynamics of the on–off intermittency are presented. Usually, such time series, with on–off intermittency, present bimodal amplitude distributions (i.e., with two lobes). As has recently been found, the phenomenon of on–off intermittency is associated with the spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) of the second-order phase transition. Thus, the revelation that a system is close to SSB supports a deeper understanding of its dynamics in terms of criticality, which is quite useful in applications such as the analysis of pre-earthquake fracture-induced electromagnetic emission (also known as fracture-induced electromagnetic radiation) (FEME/FEMR) signals. Beyond the case of on–off intermittency, PNA-STSM can provide credible results for the dynamics of any two-symbol symbolic dynamics, even in cases in which there is an imbalance in the probability of the appearance of the two respective symbols since the two symbols are not considered separately but, instead, simultaneously, considering the information from both branches of the symbolic dynamics.

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Section: The 3d Ising Model and Its Waiting Timesmentioning

confidence: 92%

Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking in Systems Obeying the Dynamics of On–Off Intermittency and Presenting Bimodal Amplitude Distributions

et al. 2023

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“…Lower-ionosphere anomalies prior to strong earthquakes in north-central Greece on March 2021 geophysical, biological, economic, thermal and electronics, [e.g., Potirakis et al, 2017Potirakis et al, , 2021Kosmidis et al, 2018;Contoyiannis et al, 2004aContoyiannis et al, , 2004bContoyiannis et al, , 2021Balasis et al, 2018;Zitis et al, 2022]. The application of MCF to various seismo-EM signals, including VLF sub-ionospheric propagation data, has been presented in detail in [Potirakis et al, 2021].…”

Section: Methods Of Critical Fluctuationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lower-ionosphere anomalies prior to strong earthquakes that occurred in north-central mainland Greece on March 2021 as revealed by multi-method analysis of VLF sub-ionospheric propagation data

Politis,

Potirakis,

Contoyiannis

et al. 2023

Annals of Geophysics

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In this work we present the multi-method analysis of very low frequency (VLF) data, acquired by the radio receiver with call name UWA, located in Athens (Greece), in the University of West Attica, focusing on two strong ( ) earthquakes (EQs) that occurred in north-central mainland Greece sequentially, on 3 and 4 March 2021, with very close epicenters. Specifically, we used the data acquired from seven VLF transmitters located in Europe, North/North-West to UWA, and their propagation paths include the specific EQs epicenters. We analyzed these data using multiple analysis methods in order to investigate for possible EQ-related anomalies, taking also into account all the other possibly ionosphere-influencing extreme events that occurred during the studied period. Especially, we applied the “nighttime fluctuation method” (NFM), as well as, the “terminator time method” (TTM) in order to reveal any statistical anomaly in the nighttime amplitude recordings of VLF sub-ionospheric propagation data within 15 days before each one examined EQs. Also, we calculated the scalogram (wavelet power spectrum over time) using Morlet mother wavelet of the same nighttime data searching for possible imprints of wave-like structures during the same time period. In terms of criticality analysis, first we applied the “natural time” (NT) analysis method to the daily-valued NFM VLF propagation quantities, and subsequently applied the “method of critical fluctuations” (MCF) to the raw nighttime amplitude VLF recordings, to check for any criticality signatures up to two weeks before the examined EQs. Taking into account all the above-mentioned analysis results, we conclude that there are multiple indications that the lower ionosphere was indeed disturbed due to the preparation processes of the above-mentioned EQs, offering different types of seismogenic indications.

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“…The cryptocurrency market is a relatively new and emerging market with a unique trading mechanism that makes it very different from traditional markets [33]. More than 21, 800 different cryptocurrencies are currently traded around the world with an estimated total market capitalization of over 843 billion dollars (see, e.g., https://coinmarketcap.com/ (accessed on 12 December 2022)).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, information considered negative for one agent, signaling a selling opportunity, might be viewed as a buying opportunity for another agent, and vice versa. However, in many cases, agents exhibit homogeneous behavior, resembling a herd [33]. Understanding the general behavior of market participants is particularly crucial, as phenomena such as herd behavior often contribute to the emergence of inefficient markets [34].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of COVID-19 on Weak-Form Efficiency in Cryptocurrency and Forex Markets

Zitis,

Kakinaka,

Umeno

et al. 2023

Entropy

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The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the global economy and financial markets. In this article, we explore the impact of the pandemic on the weak-form efficiency of the cryptocurrency and forex markets by conducting a comprehensive comparative analysis of the two markets. To estimate the weak-form of market efficiency, we utilize the asymmetric market deficiency measure (MDM) derived using the asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MF-DFA) approach, along with fuzzy entropy, Tsallis entropy, and Fisher information. Initially, we analyze the temporal evolution of these four measures using overlapping sliding windows. Subsequently, we assess both the mean value and variance of the distribution for each measure and currency in two distinct time periods: before and during the pandemic. Our findings reveal distinct shifts in efficiency before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, there was a clear increase in the weak-form inefficiency of traditional currencies during the pandemic. Among cryptocurrencies, BTC stands out for its behavior, which resembles that of traditional currencies. Moreover, our results underscore the significant impact of COVID-19 on weak-form market efficiency during both upward and downward market movements. These findings could be useful for investors, portfolio managers, and policy makers.

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Critical dynamics related to a recent Bitcoin crash

Cited by 7 publications

References 69 publications

Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking in Systems Obeying the Dynamics of On–Off Intermittency and Presenting Bimodal Amplitude Distributions

Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking in Systems Obeying the Dynamics of On–Off Intermittency and Presenting Bimodal Amplitude Distributions

Lower-ionosphere anomalies prior to strong earthquakes that occurred in north-central mainland Greece on March 2021 as revealed by multi-method analysis of VLF sub-ionospheric propagation data

The Impact of COVID-19 on Weak-Form Efficiency in Cryptocurrency and Forex Markets

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