Crisis and the Chinese miracle: A network—GVAR model

Abstract

The present paper examines how the Chinese economy has managed to maintain its overall economic growth, and therefore its production, throughout the various crises, that is, the global crisis of 2007 and the E.U. structural crisis . The paper sets up a network-global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model that is estimated simultaneously for all the economies in the model, capable of uncovering the dominant entities in the network system, in the time period 1992-2017. According to our findings, the economies of the United States and EU17 are found to exhibit a dominant role in the GVAR system, which is confirmed using both node theory as well as econometric techniques. The results show that the Chinese economy is unaffected, in the long run, by unanticipated shocks in the dominant economies of the United States and EU17.