Criminal Trajectories and Risk Factors in a Canadian Sample of Offenders

Abstract

This study contributed to the criminal trajectory literature using a Canadian-based sample of offenders and examined childhood and adolescent predictors of trajectory group membership. The sample comprised 378 males who had been sentenced as youth, between 1986 and 1996, to one of two open custody facilities in Toronto, Canada. Official criminal records were obtained from late childhood and early adolescence into adulthood for an average follow-up of 12.1 years. Childhood and adolescent predictors reflecting individual, family, peer, and school domains were extracted from client files. Trajectory analysis yielded four groups, labeled moderate rate (MR); low rate (LR); high-rate, adult peaked (HRADL); and high-rate, adolescence peaked (HRADOL). Multinomial regression analyses indicated that risk factors representing the family and peer domains differentiated the MR, HRADL, and HRADOL groups from the LR group. Moreover, whereas both child and adolescent risk factors were associated with the MR, HRADL, and HRADOL groups, only adolescent risk factors were associated with the LR group.

Group-based Criminal Trajectory Analysis Using Cross-validation Criteria

“…The value CVE thus provides a fair measure of how appropriate the approximation given by the finite mixture model with the chosen group number K is for the given data in terms of how accurately a model with that number of groups is able to predict the offender data of Ward et al, 2010). These data sets are publicly available for inspection in completely de-identified form, by contacting I. Bevc or by installing the crimCV software package discussed below.…”

“…Unfortunately, Proc Traj cannot easily handle time offsets. Alternatively, we can use the "divide and round" (DAR) approximation of Ward et al (2010) (see also Eggleston et al, 2004, p. 6 bottom), consisting of adjusting each count y ij by dividing it by the corresponding exposure time t ij and rounding the result to the nearest integer (truncated at a maximum of 25). We feel that time offsets are a far preferable method, since DAR does not distinguish between, for example, "5 offenses in 3 months at large" and "20 offenses this year" even though the effect of these two different realities on our conclusions should be far from identical.…”

Revisão sistemática de estudos sobre os aspectos escolares relacionados ao cometimento de delitos

“…Além de gerar gastos públicos com o Sistema de Segurança e de Justiça Juvenil, bem como prejuízos econômicos e psicossociais às vítimas e à sociedade em geral (LeBlanc, 2003;Maschia, Hatcher, Schwalbe & Rosato, 2008;Ward et al, 2010), a atividade infracional na adolescência implica, muitas vezes, em experiências negativas e na exposição dos jovens infratores a situações de risco, que podem impactar e comprometer seu desenvolvimento psicossocial (Hirschfield, 2009). …”

A regulação da conduta delituosa pela escola: um estudo comparativo entre adolescentes judiciarizados e não-judiciarizados no contexto brasileiro

“…Nesta temática, nove estudos revisados se referiam às variáveis familiares associadas à escolarização e à conduta infracional (Bui, 2009;Farrell et al, 2011;Henry, 2008;Huan et al, 2010;Lanza & Taylor, 2010;Simons & Conger, 2007;Stewart, Livingston, & Dennison, 2008;Topitzes et al, 2011;Ward et al, 2010;Yu & Gamble, 2010 O efeito cumulativo dessas perturbações pode contribuir para que vivenciem a transição da vida em família para a vida escolar como um desafio maior do que efetivamente represente, o que potencialmente ocasiona problemas variados neste ambiente, os quais, também, podem se agravar ao ponto de se tornarem comportamentos contrários à lei.…”

“…Implica, via de regra, em gastos significativos do dinheiro público, em ações visando sua prevenção e controle, bem como no tratamento dos jovens e das eventuais vítimas, considerando os prejuízos de natureza física, psicológica e social, decorrentes dos atos praticados (Ashkar & Kenny, 2009;Fariña, Arce, & Novo, 2008;Egli et al, 2010;Huan, Ang, & Lim, 2010;Kahn et al, 1999;LeBlanc, 1994;Lösel, Bliesener, & Bender, 2007;Maschia, Hatcher, Schwalbe, & Rosato, 2008;McLennan, Bordin, Bennett, Rigato, & Brinkerhoff, 2008;Ward et al, 2010).…”