Criminal Justice Involvement, Transition to Fatherhood, and the Demographic Foundation of the Intergenerational Transmission of Crime

Abstract

Most analyses of the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contacts compare outcomes of the second generation to the criminal history of the first generation. Such analyses ignore potential differential fertility and family formation processes and exclude childless individuals. Ignoring the demographic process underlying transmission introduces selection bias into estimates of the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contacts insofar as the first generation’s criminal history affects family formation and the probability of parenthood. In this study, we use a cohort of all Danish men born 1965-1973 including complete fertility information and criminal justice history to account for bias caused by differential selection into fatherhood across criminal histories. We demonstrate that seriousness of criminal justice involvement is associated with earlier transition to fatherhood but ultimately higher levels of childlessness. Criminal activity prior to the onset of transition to fatherhood predicts ultimate childlessness. Conditioned on becoming a father, men with criminal justice histories have a similar number of children as men without a history of criminal justice contacts. Ultimately, the findings suggest that existing estimates of the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contacts are overestimated when considered at the population level due to differential probability of ever becoming a father.