Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever and its relationship with climate factors in southeast Iran: a 13-year experience

Abstract

Introduction: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is endemic in southeast Iran. In this study we present the epidemiological features of CCHF and its relationship with climate factors in over a 13-year span. Methodology: Surveillance system data of CCHF from 2000 to 2012 were obtained from the Province Health Centre of Zahedan University of Medical Sciences in southeast Iran. The climate data were obtained from the climate organization. The seasonal auto-regression integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used for time series analysis to produce a model as applicable as possible in predicting the variations in the occurrence of the disease. Results: Between 2000 and 2012, 647 confirmed CCHF cases were reported from Sistan-va-Baluchistan province. The total case fatality rate was about 10.0%. Climate variables including mean temperature (°C), accumulated rainfall (mm), and maximum relative humidity (%) were significantly correlated with monthly incidence of CCHF (p <0.05). There was no clear pattern of decline in the reported number of cases within the study's time span. The first spike in the number of CCHF cases in Iran occurred after the first surge of the disease in Pakistan. Conclusions: This study shows the potential of climate indicators as predictive factors in modeling the occurrence of CCHF, even though it has to be appreciated whether there is any need for a practically applicable model. There are also other factors, such as entomological indicators and virological finding that must be considered.

A prospective prediction tool for understanding Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever dynamics in Turkey

“…Some of the seasonal and climatic covariates were previously reported as important predictors of CCHF virus infections [3e5]. Areas with higher temperatures, precipitation and humidity were linked with high CCHF occurrence in Bulgaria and Iran [4,5]. Suitable habitat for H. marginatum ticks was reported as fragmented agricultural lands, forested lands and grass cover in Turkey and Bulgaria, and non-irrigated agricultural land (e.g.…”

Forecasting zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis using meteorological factors in eastern Fars province, Iran: a SARIMA analysis

“…In recent years, several statistical models including Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) have been employed to predict infectious diseases such as tuberculosis , dengue , malaria , influenza , Crimean‐Congo hemorrhagic fever and ZCL . Climatic variables are considered important external factors in the prediction models of some vector‐borne diseases .…”

A study of ectoparasites in wild rodents of the Jaz Murian area in the southeast of Iran

“…Their results indicated the presence of different species of the flea, lice, mite and tick infestation in rodents. Other studies have been shown that ectoparasites associated with rodents could be responsible for distribution of the important zoonotic diseases such as CrimeanCongo Hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) and plague [8,9].…”

“…The Jaz murian region in the southeast of Iran situated in the tropical realm and is considered as an endemic area of malaria and CCHF in Iran [8,10]. Due to the diverse climatic and geographical conditions in the Jaz Murian area, the identification of the fauna of ectoparasites in wild rodents could be helpful to control zoonotic arthropod-borne diseases.…”