Crime Timing

Dynamic Analysis of Criminal Behavior: An Application of Empirical Mode Decomposition

“…In the model proposed by At and Chappe (2005), each individual is identified by the benefit they would achieve by making the choice, b ∈ [0, ]. The option for the crime generates damages, , and by definition, < ; in other words, it is socially acceptable some type of offense.…”

“…The decomposition of the criminality series can be obtained following the recommendations of Engelen (2004) and At and Chappe (2005), where the decision to commit the criminal act can be implemented at different times in the life cycle of an agent (for example, conditions for deciding on criminal behavior is more frequent during the juvenile phase). According to Gottfredson and Hirschi (1986), the chance of committing a crime usually increases until the end of adolescence, and then decreases.…”

“…Choosing to commit a crime reflects the state of nature in which the potential criminal is. Thus, it can be argued that a change in this state will result in alterations in the expected value of the crime, as there will be periods in which the agent will make the option to become a criminal, while in others that individual may abstain from illegal activities (At & Chappe, 2005).…”

“…In this sense, this work aims to identify the permanent and transitory components for a series of violent criminality in the states of Brazil. For that purpose, this approach follows the theoretical model proposed by At and Chappe (2005). In the empirical strategy, the Empirical Mode Decomposition -EMD method, proposed by Huang, Shen, Long, Wu, Shih, Zheng, and Liu (1998) will be used.…”

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Our objective is to measure the permanent and transitory components of criminality in Brazilian states by using the methodology proposed by At and Chappe (2005). The empirical strategy used follows the Empirical Mode Decomposition method (EMD), proposed by Huang et al (1998).

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