Credit risk analysis of Serbian luxury hotels: Impact of COVID-19

Abstract

The aim of this research is to analyse credit risk levels of Serbian luxury hotels, before, and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose is to highlight the need for statesupported measures and proactive strategies to ensure financial sustainability and resilience in the luxury hotel industry. A dataset of 192 observations from 2019 to 2021 is employed, using predictive models including the Altman Z'-score, Altman Z''-score, Kralicek DF score, Springate S-score, and Zmijewski X-score, to assess creditworthiness of 64 selected mostly 4-star hotels. Data analysis involved the use of statistical tests such as the KolmogorovSmirnov test, Shapiro-Wilk test, and Wilcoxon signed-rank test. All models, except Zmijewski, show statistically significant results. The findings reveal a significant impact of the pandemic on credit risk levels in 2020, followed by positive trends in 2021, indicating successful adaptation and resilience. Policymakers, financial institutions, and hoteliers can use these insights to navigate the post-pandemic era effectively.