Credit Growth in Latin America: Financial Development or Credit Boom?

Hansen, Niels-Jakob; Sulla, Olga

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2276341

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…A credit boom is most likely caused by a higher share of external bank bond lending as an external factor(Avdjiev et al [2]). Factors in the financial sector such as financial sector privatization, liberalization of the current account, sector comprehensive reforms and increased banking sector competition are attributed to increase in credit growth within an economy (Aydin [3], Hansen and Sulla [4], Coudert and Pouvelle [5], and Hauner [6]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Domestic Credit Growth Analysis using ARIMA Technique: A Case Study of Kenya

Njenga

2024

JEMT

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The aim of this paper is to technically analyze domestic credit growth in Kenya using the Box -Jenkin framework. Box -Jenkin technique uses ARIMA model, which is used to understand time series data and forecast future values of the observed data for a given period. The framework involves three iterative step to develop a model The first step involves model parameter identification. Unit root test show that domestic credit is stationary after the first difference. The ACF and PACF indicates cut off at lag zero in both cases. There are seasonal component in the ARIMA model. In the second step of model estimation, ARIMA(2,1,2)(1; 0; 0)12 is obtained as the best fit for the sample period under consideration. Model diagnostics test in the third step, proves that there ARIMA modeling assumptions are met. The estimated model is used to forecast credit growth for the next twelve monthly values in year 2024 upto December. The estimated model projects an increase trend in domestic credit growth for the year 2024, with the percentage growth rate ranging between 1.045 to 1.230 percent. The expected domestic credit value in December 2024 is yellow is highly likely to hit Kenya shilling 8.039 Trillions mark. Kenya government should put in place monetary policy that favors bank credit growth and competition in the banking sector.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Domestic Credit Growth Analysis using ARIMA Technique: A Case Study of Kenya

Njenga

2024

JEMT

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“…The emergence of this group of households that are vulnerable to poverty in Latin America has been accompanied by a massive increase in access to credit for consumption and mortgages (Matos, 2017 ), which is presented as a credit boom instead of a financial deepening (Hansen & Sulla, 2013 ). This rapid growth of credit access increases the risk of over-indebtedness in low-income households (Guérin et al, 2013 ; Schicks, 2013 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multidimensional Approach to Measuring Economic Insecurity: The Case of Chile

Prieto

2022

Soc Indic Res

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This paper proposes a strategy to measure economic insecurity in countries in the Global South. It builds a 'Multidimensional Economic Insecurity Index' (MEII) that combines four indicators of economic vulnerability that cause stress and anxiety: unexpected economic shocks, unprotected employment or non-workers in the household, over-indebtedness and asset poverty. The index offers a measure that directly relates economic uncertainty to stress and anxiety due to the lack of protection and buffers to face an unexpected economic shock. The MEII is applied to Chile using Survey of Household Finances (SHF) cross-sectional data (2007, 2011, 2014 and 2017). The results show that (i) about half of the Chilean households experienced, on average, two or more economic vulnerabilities during the last decade with an intensity of 2.3 vulnerabilities, and (ii) economic insecurity affects households on the entire income distribution, even in the highest income deciles groups. By identifying the groups of households most affected by economic insecurity and its trend in recent years, applying the MEII in countries such as Chile provides relevant information to monitor, evaluate and improve social safety nets besides labour market regulations.

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Credit Growth in Latin America: Financial Development or Credit Boom?

Cited by 2 publications

References 12 publications

Domestic Credit Growth Analysis using ARIMA Technique: A Case Study of Kenya

Domestic Credit Growth Analysis using ARIMA Technique: A Case Study of Kenya

A Multidimensional Approach to Measuring Economic Insecurity: The Case of Chile

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