Credit credibility threatens forests

Balmford, Andrew; Brancalion, Pedro Henrique Santin; Coomes, David A.; Filewod, Ben; Groom, Ben; ño, Alejandro Guizar-Couti; Jones, Julia P. G.; Keshav, Srinivasan; Kontoleon, Andreas; Madhavapeddy, Anil; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sills, Erin O.; Strassburg, Bernardo B. N.; West, Thales A. P.; Wheeler, Charlotte; Swinfield, Tom

doi:10.1126/science.adh3426

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…counterbalancing emissions with negative emissions). These practices are similar to current widespread offsetting practices, which are widely considered to be problematic [117]. DACCS has also historically been associated with various concerns about its risks, such as its large energy requirements [118,119], its safety [8,85,120], and its entanglement with the fossil fuel industry and perverse incentives to continue polluting [121][122][123], which reduce public acceptance of DACCS [6,120,124].…”

Section: Social and Behavioral Factorsmentioning

confidence: 76%

Utilizing CO₂ as a strategy to scale up direct air capture may face fewer short-term barriers than directly storing CO₂

Brazzola,

Moretti,

Sievert

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Direct Air Capture (DAC) is increasingly recognized as a necessary puzzle piece to achieve the Paris climate targets. However, the current high cost and energy intensity of DAC act as a barrier. Short-term strategies for initial deployment, technology improvement, and cost reduction are needed to enable large-scale deployment. We assess and compare two near-term pathways leading to the same installed DAC capacity and thus yielding the same cost reductions: its combination with CO2 storage as DACCS, or its deployment for CO2 utilization as DACCU e.g., for synthetic fuels, chemicals, and materials; we characterize these as Direct and Spillover pathways. Drawing on the Multi-level Perspective on Technological Transition as a heuristic, we examine both technical and immaterial factors needed to scale up DAC under the two pathways, in order to assess the pathways’ relative advantages and to identify possible short-term bottlenecks. We find neither pathway to be clearly better: the Direct pathway offers technical advantages but faces regulatory barriers that need to be resolved before deployment, while the Spillover pathway offers market and governance advantages but faces challenges related to hydrogen production and increasing resource needs as it scales up. There may be reasons for policymakers to therefore pursue both approaches in a dynamic manner. This could involve prioritizing the Spillover pathway in the short term due to possibly fewer short-term regulatory barriers and its ability to produce net-zero emission products for existing and accessible markets. Once short-term governance obstacles have been addressed, however, the Direct pathway may allow for more efficient scaling of DAC capacity and cost reductions, especially if by then the needed infrastructure and institutions are in place.

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Section: Social and Behavioral Factorsmentioning

confidence: 76%

Utilizing CO₂ as a strategy to scale up direct air capture may face fewer short-term barriers than directly storing CO₂

Brazzola,

Moretti,

Sievert

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…On the voluntary side, only two international standards, the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) and the American Carbon Registry (ACR), have developed methodologies for Canada. Partially owing to the growing pressure from the press and scholarly criticisms [26,27,63,64], Verra, the body overseeing VCS, is currently re-evaluating all its IFM methodologies, including the VM0034 and VM0012, to ensure quality and credibility [65]. Thus, these methodologies are temporarily on hold.…”

Section: Methodological Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, an expert argued that the balance of public perception of forest credits may tilt towards the negative side now, indicating that a larger proportion of the public believes that forest carbon credits are ineffective. Concerns have also been raised across academia regarding forest carbon integrity and credibility [63,64]. California's forest carbon offset program has over-issued about 30% of the credits [25], and those in California have not been additional [24].…”

Section: Social Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Canada’s Green Gold: Unveiling Challenges, Opportunities, and Pathways for Sustainable Forestry Offsets

Pan,

Li,

et al. 2023

Forests

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Forestry offsets, recognized for their diverse environmental and social co-benefits, are gaining a growing interest as nature-based solutions to combat climate change. Despite Canada’s extensive forest resources, its potential for carbon credit remains largely untapped. This study aims to unveil the prevailing challenges in developing forestry offsets in Canada and propose potential solutions, drawing on insights from in-depth semi-structured interviews (SSIs) with 23 experts in the field. A qualitative thematic analysis highlighted 14 challenges under four major frequently discussed themes: methodological (37%), social (29%), economic (22%), and implementation challenges (12%). Our findings highlighted the urgency of addressing key obstacles, including the impermanent nature of forestry carbon offsets, substantial public knowledge gaps, uncertainties in the cost-effectiveness impacting financial viability, and the need for enhanced capacity for project implementation. Building on the discussions on the identified challenges, this study further presented a comprehensive analysis of the future directions for Canada, emphasizing the importance of addressing key methodological issues, enhancing public and Indigenous education and engagement, and leveraging advanced technologies and innovative approaches like ton-year accounting for economic viability. This paper delivers pivotal insights that have the potential to shape the direction and integrity of the forestry offset markets in both Canada and globally.

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“…In recent years, voluntary carbon markets have expanded rapidly to reach over $2 billion by 2021, with REDD+ projects being the largest by traded volume at $863 million 10 . However, concerns regarding the credibility of avoided deforestation carbon credits have once again risen to the forefront 11 , as contrasting evidence on their effectiveness has cast doubt on the methods used to estimate deforestation emission baselines, which define the business-as-usual scenario upon which the emission reductions and subsequent carbon credits are calculated 12 , 13 . This has posed challenges for carbon market standards, which include the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS), Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF), and the Architecture for REDD+ Transactions: The REDD+ Environmental Excellence Standard (ART TREES), among others.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainties in deforestation emission baseline methodologies and implications for carbon markets

Teo,

Tan,

Zheng

et al. 2023

Nat Commun

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Carbon credits generated through jurisdictional-scale avoided deforestation projects require accurate estimates of deforestation emission baselines, but there are serious challenges to their robustness. We assessed the variability, accuracy, and uncertainty of baselining methods by applying sensitivity and variable importance analysis on a range of typically-used methods and parameters for 2,794 jurisdictions worldwide. The median jurisdiction’s deforestation emission baseline varied by 171% (90% range: 87%-440%) of its mean, with a median forecast error of 0.778 times (90% range: 0.548-3.56) the actual deforestation rate. Moreover, variable importance analysis emphasised the strong influence of the deforestation projection approach. For the median jurisdiction, 68.0% of possible methods (90% range: 61.1%-85.6%) exceeded 15% uncertainty. Tropical and polar biomes exhibited larger uncertainties in carbon estimations. The use of sensitivity analyses, multi-model, and multi-source ensemble approaches could reduce variabilities and biases. These findings provide a roadmap for improving baseline estimations to enhance carbon market integrity and trust.

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Credit credibility threatens forests

Cited by 10 publications

References 10 publications

Utilizing CO₂ as a strategy to scale up direct air capture may face fewer short-term barriers than directly storing CO₂

Utilizing CO₂ as a strategy to scale up direct air capture may face fewer short-term barriers than directly storing CO₂

Canada’s Green Gold: Unveiling Challenges, Opportunities, and Pathways for Sustainable Forestry Offsets

Uncertainties in deforestation emission baseline methodologies and implications for carbon markets

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Credit credibility threatens forests

Cited by 10 publications

References 10 publications

Utilizing CO2 as a strategy to scale up direct air capture may face fewer short-term barriers than directly storing CO2

Utilizing CO2 as a strategy to scale up direct air capture may face fewer short-term barriers than directly storing CO2

Canada’s Green Gold: Unveiling Challenges, Opportunities, and Pathways for Sustainable Forestry Offsets

Uncertainties in deforestation emission baseline methodologies and implications for carbon markets

Contact Info

Product

Resources

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Utilizing CO₂ as a strategy to scale up direct air capture may face fewer short-term barriers than directly storing CO₂

Utilizing CO₂ as a strategy to scale up direct air capture may face fewer short-term barriers than directly storing CO₂