Credibility assessment of short-term load forecast in power system

Zhang, Zhikun; Li, Canbing; Cao, Yijia; Tang, Liangxing; Li, Junxiong; Wu, Bo

doi:10.1109/isgt-asia.2012.6303209

Cited by 2 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The short-term reliability of balance was calculated using (12), as shown in Figure 6. Unlike the proposed method, whereby the short-term reliability of balance was maintained >99.6%, the short-term reliability of balance with the conventional method decreased to 97.69%.…”

Section: Comparison Of Our Methods With a Constant Reserve Marginmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because of uncertainties in the forecast demand, the outages of generators and wind power error vary from hour to hour; the times for the maximum and minimum reserve margin depend on the combination of these three uncertain factors. The short-term reliability of balance was calculated using (12), as shown in Figure 6. Unlike the proposed method, whereby the short-term reliability of balance was maintained >99.6%, the short-term reliability of balance with the conventional method decreased to 97.69%.…”

Section: Comparison Of Our Methods With a Constant Reserve Marginmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to the uncertainties caused by generation outage, many investigations have considered uncertainties in wind power forecasting for power systems with a large portion of wind power generation [12][13][14][15][16]. If there is high penetration of wind generation in a power system, the forecasting error cannot be ignored regarding the uncertainties in the supply of power.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cost Analysis Method for Estimating Dynamic Reserve Considering Uncertainties in Supply and Demand

et al. 2016

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Abstract:The use of appropriate hourly reserve margins can maintain power system security by balancing supply and demand in the presence of errors in the forecast demand, generation outages, or errors in the forecast of wind power generation. Because the cost of unit commitment increases with larger reserve margins, cost analysis to determine the most economical reserve margin is an important issue in power system operation. Here, we define the "short-term reliability of balance" and describe a method to determine the reserve margin based on the short-term reliability of balance. We describe a case study, in which we calculate the reserve margin using this method with various standards of short-term reliability of balance. A cost analysis is then performed to determine the most economic standard, and a comparison between our method and a conventional method is carried out. The results show that our method with an economic short-term reliability of balance enables more reliable and efficient operation of the power system. Moreover, with an hourly reserve margin, we show that an increase in wind power generation can result in a significant decrease in the operating cost, which makes wind power generation economically viable.

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Section: Comparison Of Our Methods With a Constant Reserve Marginmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Comparison Of Our Methods With a Constant Reserve Marginmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cost Analysis Method for Estimating Dynamic Reserve Considering Uncertainties in Supply and Demand

et al. 2016

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show abstract

“…To overcome these problems, the credibility assessment based on load forecasting results is proposed in [19] as a compromise solution, which is simpler in implementation and more practical to directly support the optimisation of power system scheduling. The credibility of short‐term load forecasting represents the regularity of short‐term load forecasting errors quantitatively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The credibility of short‐term load forecasting represents the regularity of short‐term load forecasting errors quantitatively. Some indices of credibility assessment were made in [19]. However, the indices are insufficient to analyse the load forecasting results only with average error and maximum error.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Credibility forecasting in short‐term load forecasting and its application

Cao

et al. 2015

IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution

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Credibility assessment of short-term load forecast in power system

Cited by 2 publications

References 13 publications

Cost Analysis Method for Estimating Dynamic Reserve Considering Uncertainties in Supply and Demand

Cost Analysis Method for Estimating Dynamic Reserve Considering Uncertainties in Supply and Demand

Credibility forecasting in short‐term load forecasting and its application

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