CoViD-19: Weekly Mortality Cycle and Sunday Protective Phenomenon

Teppone, Mikhail

doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0321.v1

Cited by 2 publications

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“…The first example of synchronization was a weekly mortality cycle which was noticed in June 2020, 21 later this anomalous cycle of daily death became obvious and steady. 22 A comparison of the percentage of fatal cases on different days of the week for a period of 100 weeks (26.01.20-25.12.21) revealed almost identical distribution as described in a previous study. 22 (Fig.…”

Section: Initial and Current State Of The Covid-19 Pandemic Narrativesupporting

confidence: 73%

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COVID-19: Three Phases of the Pandemic. Dynamics Of Cases, Deaths And Tests Related To SARS-CoV-2 A Systematic Analysis of 213 Countries and Territories

Teppone¹

2022

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Background. January 2021 marked one year since the start of COVID-19 pandemic: it is the time of intermediate conclusions. Objective. To evaluate CFR and IFR due to COVID-19 in various countries and territories, and to study if parameters of a population age affect CFR and IFR. Material and Methods. The databases of 219 countries were collected on the Worldometers, Index Mundi, Country Meters and World Bank websites. The processing of data was divided into two parts: the first part dealt with the calculation and analysis of CFR while the second, the calculation and analysis of IFR. Results. The calculations revealed that in 74 out of 219 countries, CFR was less than 1.00 %, in 69 countries it varied between 1.00 % and 2.00 %, and in 76 countries it was more than 2.00 %. The calculation of IFR revealed that in 183 countries, IFR was less than 1.00 %, in 22 countries IFR was between 1.00 % and 2.00 %, and only in 14 out of 219 countries IFR was more than 2.00 %. A correlation between IFR and parameters of a population age was found: the less median age and the percentage of 'aged' people – the less value of IFR, although, there was no correlation between parameters of a population age and CFR. Conclusion. The global health care system has gone through a year of serious trial caused by COVID-19 and appeared to have emerged victorious. In the majority of countries analyzed, the parameters of mortality due to COVID-19 were at a low level. So, there seems to be an objective basis for optimism and hope for an early end to the pandemic.

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Section: Initial and Current State Of The Covid-19 Pandemic Narrativesupporting

confidence: 73%

“…22 A comparison of the percentage of fatal cases on different days of the week for a period of 100 weeks (26.01.20-25.12.21) revealed almost identical distribution as described in a previous study. 22 (Fig. 4).…”

Section: Initial and Current State Of The Covid-19 Pandemic Narrativesupporting

confidence: 73%

COVID-19: Three Phases of the Pandemic. Dynamics Of Cases, Deaths And Tests Related To SARS-CoV-2 A Systematic Analysis of 213 Countries and Territories

Teppone¹

2022

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COVID-19: THREE PHASES OF THE PANDEMIC. Dynamics of cases, deaths and tests related to SARS-CoV-2 A systematic analysis of 213 countries and territories

Teppone¹

2022

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- Background. Since the previous study dealing with the case fatality ratio and infection fatality ratio caused by COVID-19, the author has received many comments that prompted the question: "Why did an optimistic prognosis fail?" To answer this question, a more detailed and expanded analysis was carried out in a new study. - Objective. To evaluate the dynamics of monthly numbers of cases, deaths, tests and CFR worldwide during three phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. - Material and Methods. Twenty three sets of databases, dated the 22nd of each month from January 2020 to November 2021, for 213 countries were collected from the Worldometer website. The number of cases, deaths, tests, CFR, IFR, etc. were counted for various periods of time for each of the 213 countries, then results related to different periods of time were compared. - Results. The analysis of the main epidemiological parameters led to the division of three phases of the global pandemic evolution. The first phase (23.01.20-22.07.20), the second phase (23.07.20-22.01.21) and the third phase (23.01.21-22.07.21) were different in terms of the number of tests performed, new cases, and mortality due to COVID-19. By the end of the secondphase, the worldwide statistics indicated the imminent end of the pandemic, but the third phase was characterized by a sudden rise in the number of new cases and deaths that could not be explained rationally. The most dramatic evolution of the epidemic curve occurred in the countries where doctors had successfully battled COVID-19 during the first two phases of the pandemic. - Conclusions. Despite the decrease in overall death numbers during the latest months analyzed, additional study is necessary to identify the cause for the increase in the number of new cases and deaths during the third phase of the pandemic. Only complete information regarding the positive and negative impact of medical and non-medical methods of diagnostics and prophylaxis of COVID-19 can help to organize effective measures to end the current pandemic and prevent a similar one from occurring in the future. Presumably, there are several causes of the negative evolution of the current pandemic, including the overreliance on PCR tests, application of non-specialized premises for quarantine and treatment, decrease in herd and individual immunity, inadequate change of therapeutic protocols, and ignoring prophylactic treatment. It can be suggested that the use of immunemodulatory drugs, for example, thymus extract or thymic peptides, in groups of people with compromised immunity is necessary, and prophylactic and therapeutic protocols should be changed from the 'standard' types to 'personalized' ones.

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CoViD-19: Weekly Mortality Cycle and Sunday Protective Phenomenon

Cited by 2 publications

References 1 publication

COVID-19: Three Phases of the Pandemic. Dynamics Of Cases, Deaths And Tests Related To SARS-CoV-2 A Systematic Analysis of 213 Countries and Territories

COVID-19: Three Phases of the Pandemic. Dynamics Of Cases, Deaths And Tests Related To SARS-CoV-2 A Systematic Analysis of 213 Countries and Territories

COVID-19: THREE PHASES OF THE PANDEMIC. Dynamics of cases, deaths and tests related to SARS-CoV-2 A systematic analysis of 213 countries and territories

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