COVID-19 vaccination, risk-compensatory behaviours, and contacts in the UK

Abstract

The physiological effects of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) are well documented, yet the behavioural effects are largely unknown. Risk compensation suggests that gains in personal safety, as a result of vaccination, are offset by increases in risky behaviour, such as socialising, commuting and working outside the home. This is potentially problematic because transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is driven by contacts, which could be amplified by vaccine-related risk compensation behaviours. Here, we show that behaviours were overall unrelated to personal vaccination, but - adjusting for variation in mitigation policies - were responsive to the level of vaccination in the wider population: individuals in the UK were risk compensating when rates of vaccination were rising. This effect was observed across four nations of the UK, each of which varied policies autonomously.

Risk compensation: how vaccination impacts social distancing in an online natural experiment

“…Furthermore, the context is different with US citizens in the current study compared to Chinese citizens, and the study design uses an online natural experiment, whilst Sun and colleagues employed a field experiment measuring real-world behaviour. The results are consistent Buckell et al (2021), who demonstrated risk compensation in a field setting using survey methods.…”

“…hand washing). However a study by Buckell et al (2021), demonstrated evidence of risk compensation across the UK when analysing the Office for National Statistics (ONS) COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS). No experimental paradigm as of yet demonstrates any effect of risk compensation in context of the vaccination against COVID-19.…”

Changing patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infection through Delta and Omicron waves by vaccination status, previous infection and neighbourhood deprivation: A cohort analysis of 2.7M people

“…Causal explanations for this association may include behavioural changes, such as increased physical contacts and working outside the home following vaccination increasing exposure to the virus (11,12). Evidence in England suggests that while individuals did not change behaviours after being vaccinated, increasing population vaccination levels were associated to changes in risk-compensatory behaviours and social contacts (24). In addition, as most people get vaccinated or infected, the pool of unvaccinated people most susceptible to infection becomes smaller.…”