COVID-19 vaccination process in Latin America and the Caribbean

Caycho‐Rodríguez, Tomás; Gallegos, Miguel; White, Michael

doi:10.1016/j.enfcle.2022.10.004

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 6 publications

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“…At that time, of the 153.5 million COVID-19 vaccines administered in the Americas, only 21.6% came through LAC [ 94 , 95 ]. Through 2022 and 2023, difficulties in production, access, and equitable distribution among different countries within LAC limited COVID-19 vaccination success and exacerbated hesitancy and rejection [ 96 ]. Despite the relatively late arrival of COVID-19 to LAC, the region suffered disproportionately.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

Post,

Wu,

Soetikno

et al. 2024

JMIR Public Health Surveill

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Background In May 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 40% of worldwide COVID-19–related deaths at the time. This high disease burden was a result of the unique circumstances in LAC. Objective This study aimed to (1) measure whether the pandemic was expanding or contracting in LAC when the WHO declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023; (2) use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history; and (3) provide, with a focus on prevention policies, a historical context for the course of the pandemic in the region. Methods In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern (VOCs). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we conducted a 1-sided t test for whether the regional weekly speed (rate of novel COVID-19 transmission) was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the period from August 2020 to May 2023. Results The speed of pandemic spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 6 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant for the 120-day period ending on the week of May 5, 2023, the coefficients were relatively modest in magnitude (0.457 and 0.491, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any change in this clustering effect of cases on future cases. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant VOC in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed=10 became entirely insignificant from January 2023 onward. Conclusions Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in LAC, surveillance data suggest COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, the region experienced a high COVID-19 burden in the early stages of the pandemic, and prevention policies should be an immediate focus in future pandemics. Ahead of vaccination development, these policies can include widespread testing of individuals and an epidemiological task force with a contact-tracing system.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

Post,

Wu,

Soetikno

et al. 2024

JMIR Public Health Surveill

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis (Preprint)

Post,

Wu,

Soetikno

et al. 2023

Preprint

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BACKGROUND This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in Latin America and the Caribbean we first conducted in 2020 by providing two additional years of data for the region. OBJECTIVE First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean. METHODS In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study Post et al. (2021), this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we conducted a one-sided t-test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of ten. We ran the test iteratively with six months of data across the sample period. RESULTS Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for six months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were relatively modest in magnitude (0.457 and 0.491, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the two most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any overall change in the clustering effect of cases on future cases around the time of WHO declaration. From December of 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t-test of speed equal to ten became entirely insignificant from January 2023 onward. CONCLUSIONS While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Latin America and the Caribbean, the rate of transmission had remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for six months ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics suggest the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration.

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COVID-19 vaccination process in Latin America and the Caribbean

Cited by 2 publications

References 6 publications

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis (Preprint)

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