COVID-19 Transmission due to Mass Mobility Before and After the Largest Festival in Bangladesh: An Epidemiologic Study

Abstract

Festivals traditionally result in mass public mobility from large cities to rural or semi-urban areas in low- and middle-Income Countries (LMIC), which are inadequately prepared for tackling the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to explore the trend of COVID-19 infection in a peripheral region of Bangladesh during one of the largest festivals to develop an evidence-based hypothesis for its influence on the transmission rate of COVID-19. This study conducted a quantitative analysis of secondary data on COVID-19 collected from the Directorate General of Health Services Bangladesh (DGHS) and divisional director’s office in the Mymensingh division. To explore the influence of one of the biggest festivals (Eid-ul-Adha) on the trend of COVID-19 infection, we analyzed data from a week before the festival to 2 weeks following the festival. The infection rate (positive cases per million of the population) and the test positivity rate (positive cases among the total number of conducted diagnostic tests) of each day during this period were calculated both for the Mymensingh region and national level. Both the test positivity rate (TPR) and infection rates in the Mymensingh region demonstrated an increasing trend. The mean test positivity rate of the Mymensingh region on the week before the festival was 9.5%. It increased to a mean test positivity rate of 13% in the following week and further rose to a rate of 17% in the next week. The infection rate of Mymensingh also increased more than 2 folds from the day of the festival (2.0-5.3 cases per million) within the next 2 weeks. The TPR and infection rate on the national level remained similar throughout the study period. Mass mobility during Eid-ul-Adha influences the increased transmission of COVID-19 among the peripheral regions of Bangladesh from the central capital city Dhaka. The findings will help policymakers plan and implement travel restrictions during festivals during the pandemic in LMICs.

Did national holidays accelerate COVID-19 diffusion in Bangladesh? A case study

“…This explains the spikes in Rt values for Dhaka, Gazipur, and Narayanganj right after the first lockdown. Similar trends were observed when there was similarly high mobility among the masses during the holidays accompanying Eid ul-Fitr and Eid al-Adha [16,[18][19][20].…”

“…The primary industry in the division is the RMG sector, operating mostly from Dhaka, Narayanganj, and Gazipur. As a result of the high demand for workers in RMG factories, the majority of employees originate from other districts, having moved to these industrial zones for work [16]. Due to the dense population of the division, with Dhaka city being one of the most densely populated cities in the world, it was not surprising when the government officials decided to impose the first lockdown in late March 2020 [5,6].…”

Assessment of Community Behavior and COVID-19 Transmission during Festivities in India: A Qualitative Synthesis through a Media Scanning Technique

“…With the advent of COVID-19, peaks in cases were distinctly visible globally after sudden influxes of people owing to festivities, especially after lockdown restrictions were eased. Several reports from the United States, Italy, the United Kingdom, Bangladesh, and also from several states of India, particularly in locations where annual gatherings occurred as part of traditions or recreation, indicated surges in cases after festivals [ 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 ].…”

“…Owing to the observed spike in cases with the advent of India’s festive season, the Indian government launched “Jan Andolan”, which has the colloquial meaning of “the people’s campaign for CAB” [ 19 ]. Despite such approaches and guidelines, the festive season triggered an increase in the movement of people for shopping, leisurely visits, and ceremonial get-togethers, thereby enhancing the chance of infection [ 13 , 19 , 20 ]. In this context, we aimed to explore different social-behavioral factors and their plausible effect on COVID-19 transmission during festive seasons in India.…”

Unravelling the effect of winter holiday celebrations on SARS-CoV-2 transmission

“…Surges in COVID-19 case numbers have been observed following public holidays and celebrations, although causal evidence remains limited [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] . Modelling studies and empirical data have implicated superspreading events (SSE) as major contributors to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens [8][9][10][11][12] .…”