Covid-19 Social Distancing Interventions by Statutory Mandate and Their Observational Correlation to Mortality in the United States and Europe

McCafferty, Sean; Ashley, Sean

doi:10.2147/por.s298309

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…These measures aimed to reduce the rate of infections and subsequently the mortality associated with the causal virus, however, they had significant growth in January and February of 2021 ( 1 ). Furthermore, a recently published North American study was unable to identify reductions in mortality during restricted mobility days in either the United States or Europe ( 10 ). The lack of control of the rates of infection and death is a clear example that there is much we still do not understand about the transmissibility of COVID-19 since many people around the world continue becoming infected and infecting others.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Factors for SARS-CoV-2 Infection, Pneumonia, Intubation, and Death in Northeast Mexico

Cordero-Franco

Garza-Salinas

Gómez-García

et al. 2021

Front. Public Health

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Despite the social distancing and mobility restriction measures implemented for susceptible people around the world, infections and deaths due to COVID-19 continued to increase, even more so in the first months of 2021 in Mexico. Thus, it is necessary to find risk groups that can benefit from more aggressive preventive measures in a high-density population. This is a case-control study of suspected COVID-19 patients from Nuevo León, Mexico. Cases were: (1) COVID-19-positive patients and COVID-19-positive patients who (2) developed pneumonia, (3) were intubated and (4) died. Controls were: (1) COVID-19-negative patients, (2) COVID-19-positive patients without pneumonia, (3) non-intubated COVID-19-positive patients and (4) surviving COVID-19-positive patients. ≥ 18 years of age, not pregnant, were included. The pre-existing conditions analysed as risk factors were age (years), sex (male), diabetes mellitus, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, immunosuppression, obesity, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease and smoking. The Mann-Whitney U tests, Chi square and binary logistic regression were used. A total of 56,715 suspected patients were analysed in Nuevo León, México, with 62.6% being positive for COVID-19 and, of those infected, 14% developed pneumonia, 2.9% were intubated and 8.1% died. The mean age of those infected was 44.7 years, while of those complicated it was around 60 years. Older age, male sex, diabetes, hypertension, and obesity were risk factors for infection, complications, and death from COVID-19. This study highlights the importance of timely recognition of the population exposed to pre-existing conditions to prioritise preventive measures against the virus.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Factors for SARS-CoV-2 Infection, Pneumonia, Intubation, and Death in Northeast Mexico

Cordero-Franco

Garza-Salinas

Gómez-García

et al. 2021

Front. Public Health

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“…Three studies did not find a significant association between stay-at-home orders and COVID-19 cases [14,28,144]. However, the effectiveness of stay-at-home measures on reducing mortality was mixed, with 16 studies [107,116,[130][131][132][133][134][135][136][137][138][139][140][141] reporting reductions, and nine studies reporting no significant associations [19,28,30,47,[144][145][146][147][148]. Nevertheless, one study in Europe [28] and another in the US [144] concluded that social distancing behaviours had already changed substantially before stay-at-home orders were implemented in early 2020, and therefore little additional benefit was observed after the stay-at-home orders were issued.…”

Section: (A) Stay-at-home Ordersmentioning

confidence: 95%

Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings

Murphy,

Lim,

Mills

et al. 2023

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Social distancing measures (SDMs) are community-level interventions that aim to reduce person-to-person contacts in the community. SDMs were a major part of the responses first to contain, then to mitigate, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Common SDMs included limiting the size of gatherings, closing schools and/or workplaces, implementing work-from-home arrangements, or more stringent restrictions such as lockdowns. This systematic review summarized the evidence for the effectiveness of nine SDMs. Almost all of the studies included were observational in nature, which meant that there were intrinsic risks of bias that could have been avoided were conditions randomly assigned to study participants. There were no instances where only one form of SDM had been in place in a particular setting during the study period, making it challenging to estimate the separate effect of each intervention. The more stringent SDMs such as stay-at-home orders, restrictions on mass gatherings and closures were estimated to be most effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Most studies included in this review suggested that combinations of SDMs successfully slowed or even stopped SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community. However, individual effects and optimal combinations of interventions, as well as the optimal timing for particular measures, require further investigation. This article is part of the theme issue 'The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: the evidence'.

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“…Chernozhukov et al (2021), calculate a counterfactual scenario. 42 Also, Mccafferty and Ashley (2021) estimate the effect of lockdowns on peak mortality, but an estimate of peak mortality cannot meaningfully be converted to our standardized estimate, which measures the relative impact on COVID-19 mortality.…”

Section: Meta-analysis: the Impact Of Lockdowns On Covid-19 Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID-19 Mortality II

Herby,

Jonung,

Hanke

2023

Preprint

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The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to determine the effect of lockdowns on COVID-19 mortality based on available empirical evidence. Lockdowns are defined as the imposition of at least one compulsory, non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI). We employ a systematic search and screening procedure in which 19,646 studies are identified that could potentially address the purpose of our study. After three levels of screening, 32 studies qualified. Of those, estimates from 22 studies could be converted to standardized measures for inclusion in the meta-analysis. They are separated into three groups: lockdown stringency index studies, shelter-in-place-order (SIPO) studies, and specific NPI studies. Stringency index studies find that the average lockdown in Europe and the United States in the spring of 2020 only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 3.2%. This translates into approximately 6,000 avoided deaths in Europe and 4,000 in the United States. SIPOs were also relatively ineffective in the spring of 2020, only reducing COVID-19 mortality by 2.0%. This translates into approximately 4,000 avoided deaths in Europe and 3,000 in the United States. Based on specific NPIs, we estimate that the average lockdown in Europe and the United States in the spring of 2020 reduced COVID-19 mortality by 10.7%. This translates into approximately 23,000 avoided deaths in Europe and 16,000 in the United States. In comparison, there are approximately 72,000 flu deaths in Europe and 38,000 flu deaths in the United States each year. When checked for potential biases, our results are robust. Our results are also supported by the natural experiments we have been able to identify. The results of our meta-analysis support the conclusion that lockdowns in the spring of 2020 had little to no effect on COVID-19 mortality. This result is consistent with the view that voluntary changes in behavior, such as social distancing, did play an important role in mitigating the pandemic.

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Covid-19 Social Distancing Interventions by Statutory Mandate and Their Observational Correlation to Mortality in the United States and Europe

Cited by 9 publications

References 12 publications

Risk Factors for SARS-CoV-2 Infection, Pneumonia, Intubation, and Death in Northeast Mexico

Risk Factors for SARS-CoV-2 Infection, Pneumonia, Intubation, and Death in Northeast Mexico

Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings

A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID-19 Mortality II

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