COVID-19: Shining the Light on Africa

Rosenthal, Philip J.; Breman, Joel G.; Djimdé, Abdoulaye; John, Chandy C.; Kamya, Moses R.; Leke, Rose G. F.; Moeti, Matshidiso; Nkengasong, John N.; Bausch, Daniel G.

doi:10.4269/ajtmh.20-0380

Cited by 91 publications

(109 citation statements)

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“…There have been particular concerns for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) [ 2 – 4 ], as the major factors that drive high burdens of other infectious diseases, such as the environmental and socio-economic conditions, lack of water and sanitation infrastructure, and weak health systems, are equally relevant to the threat of COVID-19. However, so far, the perceived burden of COVID-19 in SSA is low compared to expectations both from epidemiological models and from epidemic patterns in other regions of the world [ 5 , 6 ]. Though SSA comprises 11% of the global population, it comprised only 3.6% of the total global COVID-19 incidence during the first 5 months of the pandemic, much of which was due to case reports from South Africa [ 7 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The policy response in Africa has also been a source of considerable optimism [ 5 , 18 ]. African governments implemented early and strong non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) policies that may have effectively contained disease transmission [ 5 , 19 ]. The first case of COVID-19 was reported in SSA one month later than the first cases in Europe, allowing countries to prepare and implement NPIs, particularly lockdowns, social distancing, masks, and regulated domestic travel, during the early stages of the pandemic [ 3 , 19 , 20 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reconciling model predictions with low reported cases of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: insights from Madagascar

Evans

Garchitorena

Rakotonanahary

et al. 2020

Global Health Action

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COVID-19 has wreaked havoc globally with particular concerns for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where models suggest that the majority of the population will become infected. Conventional wisdom suggests that the continent will bear a higher burden of COVID-19 for the same reasons it suffers from other infectious diseases: ecology, socio-economic conditions, lack of water and sanitation infrastructure, and weak health systems. However, so far SSA has reported lower incidence and fatalities compared to the predictions of standard models and the experience of other regions of the world. There are three leading explanations, each with different implications for the final epidemic burden: (1) low case detection, (2) differences in epidemiology (e.g. low R 0 ), and (3) policy interventions. The low number of cases have led some SSA governments to relaxing these policy interventions. Will this result in a resurgence of cases? To understand how to interpret the lower-than-expected COVID-19 case data in Madagascar, we use a simple age-structured model to explore each of these explanations and predict the epidemic impact associated with them. We show that the incidence of COVID-19 cases as of July 2020 can be explained by any combination of the late introduction of first imported cases, early implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and low case detection rates. We then re-evaluate these findings in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic in Madagascar through August 2020. This analysis reinforces that Madagascar, along with other countries in SSA, remains at risk of a growing health crisis. If NPIs remain enforced, up to 50,000 lives may be saved. Even with NPIs, without vaccines and new therapies, COVID-19 could infect up to 30% of the population, making it the largest public health threat in Madagascar for the coming year, hence the importance of clinical trials and continually improving access to healthcare.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reconciling model predictions with low reported cases of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: insights from Madagascar

Evans

Garchitorena

Rakotonanahary

et al. 2020

Global Health Action

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“…Currently, SARS-CoV-2 has spread to every part of the globe except Antarctica, infecting millions and killing hundreds of thousands of people. The first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Africa was reported in Egypt on February 14 (Rosenthal et al, 2020). By March, COVID-19 cases were observed across most of the continent (Rosenthal et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Addressing Africa’s pandemic puzzle: Perspectives on COVID-19 transmission and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

Musa

et al. 2021

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

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This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

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“…However, the type of supportive measures and clinical setups used for monitoring cases was varied among countries and it mainly depends on their economical status (25). Starting from the onset of COVID-19 epidemic, countries' economical, social and political issues were greatly in uenced (26)(27)(28)(29)(30)(31). Moreover, it brought a signi cant impact on health care system of Africa including Ethiopia (32)(33)(34).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceived Efficacy of COVID-19 Prevention Measures and Intention to Use Among Chronic Disease Patients in Northeast Ethiopia, 2020

Dires

Gedamu

Tesema

2020

Preprint

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Background: The novel corona virus disease outbreak which was first detected in China is caused by sever acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2. In Ethiopia, poor perception about COVID-19 prevention methods might be one of determinant factor to the low utilization of adopted prevention measures and increasing of cases. However, it was unknown to what extent individuals were perceived the efficacy of those measures. Hence, this study was aimed to assess perceived efficacy of COVID-19 preventive measures and intention to carry out those methods among chronic disease patients. Methods: Institutional based cross sectional study was conducted among 413 chronic disease patients from 21 July - 5 August, 2020. A pre-tested interviewer administered structured questionnaire was used for data collection. Both binary and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used and in multivariable analysis, variables were declared statistically significant at p-value of < 0.05. Results: In overall, 42.1% of participants had low perception to the efficacy of COVID-19 prevention measures and 28.3% had low intention to carry out those prevention measures. In this study, young adults (AOR=2.48; 95% CI: 1.42-4.31), male gender (AOR=2.75; 95% CI: 1.73-4.37), uneducated (AOR=3.42; 95% CI: 1.47-7.94) and face mask non-users (AOR=1.64; 95% CI: 1.03-2.61) were significantly associated with low perceived efficacy of COVID-19 prevention methods. However, male gender (AOR=2.06; 95% CI: 1.28-3.31), rural residents (AOR=1.89; 95% CI: 1.16-3.07) and patients with longer duration of chronic disease (AOR= 2.19; 95% CI: 1.19-4.01) were significantly associated with low intention to carry out COVID-19 prevention methods.Conclusion: In this study, significant proportion of patients (42%) had low perception about the efficacy of COVID-19 prevention measures and nearly one-third of participants (28.3%) had low intention to carry out those measures. Thus, interventions aimed to enhance patients’ attitude and behavioral changes on COVID-19 prevention measures have to be provided.

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COVID-19: Shining the Light on Africa

Cited by 91 publications

References 0 publications

Reconciling model predictions with low reported cases of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: insights from Madagascar

Reconciling model predictions with low reported cases of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: insights from Madagascar

Addressing Africa’s pandemic puzzle: Perspectives on COVID-19 transmission and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

Perceived Efficacy of COVID-19 Prevention Measures and Intention to Use Among Chronic Disease Patients in Northeast Ethiopia, 2020

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