COVID-19 Seroprevalence in Canada Modelling Waning and Boosting COVID-19 Immunity in Canada a Canadian Immunization Research Network Study

Abstract

COVID-19 seroprevalence changes over time, with infection, vaccination, and waning immunity. Seroprevalence estimates are needed to determine when increased COVID-19 vaccination coverage is needed, and when booster doses should be considered, to reduce the spread and disease severity of COVID-19 infection. We use an age-structured model including infection, vaccination and waning immunity to estimate the distribution of immunity to COVID-19 in the Canadian population. This is the first mathematical model to do so. We estimate that 60–80% of the Canadian population has some immunity to COVID-19 by late Summer 2021, depending on specific characteristics of the vaccine and the waning rate of immunity. Models results indicate that increased vaccination uptake in age groups 12–29, and booster doses in age group 50+ are needed to reduce the severity COVID-19 Fall 2021 resurgence.

Optimized workplace risk mitigation measures for SARS-CoV-2 in 2022

“…For example, we both identify that the omicron variant cannot be controlled with even frequent (twice a week or greater) unvaccinated only testing strategies except for very low CIR and vaccination coverage scenarios 52 . Other studies 53 , 54 use modelling to determine immunity to SARS-CoV-2 within a population, but do not provide individual simulated case rates resulting from permutations of viral specific scenarios.…”

The resurgence risk of COVID-19 in China in the presence of immunity waning and ADE: A mathematical modelling study

“…Furthermore, our model explicitly accounted for the progressive waning of immunity over time, by assuming an average protection period ( ). The modelling method has been commonly used to describe the waning of immunity in the population [28] , [29] , [30] . Note that the term transferred from i ( ) to or in the model represented the decreasing rate of the completely protected population through immunity waning, from which we can obtain that the completely protected population would decrease with exponential trend, reflecting the continuous antibody declining in individual-level [31] in the manner of continuous population-level immunity declining.…”

Epidemic patterns of emerging variants with dynamical social distancing

“…Mathematical models were also useful to give insights into the potential and optimization of testing strategies [7], including group testing [8]. The impact of vaccination and the waning and boosting of immunity have also been evaluated by models [9,10] With the emergence of new strains of the virus, researchers considered the spread of multiple lineages [11], the potential for new waves [12], and the adaptation of test and trace strategies [13].…”

“…Mathematical models were also useful to give insights into the potential and optimization of testing strategies [7], including group testing [8]. The impact of vaccination and the waning and boosting of immunity have also been evaluated by models [9, 10]…”