COVID-19 Related Mortality: Is the BCG Vaccine Truly Effective?

Mogica, Jan Alberto Paredes; Garduño, Valeria; Torres, Julián Francisco Ruiz

doi:10.1101/2020.05.01.20087411

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Finally, we use available data to explore a possible association between BCG vaccination and aggravated cases of COVID-19, and deaths [a relationship which is being investigated in some clinical trials (37)] 13 . The evidence is still inconclusive because the argued existence of uncontrolled confounders (38)(39)(40)(41)(42). However, if these confounders exist, they can bias the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 detections rates and the cumulative number of deaths.…”

Section: Regression Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the World: An Estimation of the Infected Population and a Measure of How Higher Detection Rates Save Lives

Villalobos

2020

Front. Public Health

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This paper provides an estimation of the accumulated detection rates and the accumulated number of infected individuals by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Worldwide, on July 20, it has been estimated above 160 million individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, it is found that only about 1 out of 11 infected individuals are detected. In an information context in which population-based seroepidemiological studies are not frequently available, this study shows a parsimonious alternative to provide estimates of the number of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals. By comparing our estimates with those provided by the populationbased seroepidemiological ENE-COVID study in Spain, we confirm the utility of our approach. Then, using a crosscountry regression, we investigated if differences in detection rates are associated with differences in the cumulative number of deaths. The hypothesis investigated in this study is that higher levels of detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections can reduce the risk exposure of the susceptible population with a relatively higher risk of death. Our results show that, on average, detecting 5 instead of 35 percent of the infections is associated with multiplying the number of deaths by a factor of about 6. Using this result, we estimated that 120 days after the pandemic outbreak, if the US would have tested with the same intensity as South Korea, about 85,000 out of their 126,000 reported deaths could have been avoided.

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Section: Regression Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the World: An Estimation of the Infected Population and a Measure of How Higher Detection Rates Save Lives

Villalobos

2020

Front. Public Health

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“…Paredes et al, showed that when confounders such as under-reporting, SARS-CoV-2 capability testing and differing lockdown measures were considered, the differential impact of BCG vaccination on COVID-19 related mortality rate was not significant (21). Among high-income countries, the mean number of deaths per 1 million population for countries with no universal BCG vaccination (223.2 ± 166.1) was not statistically significant from countries with current or previous BCG vaccination programs (55 ± 82.5; P = 0.85).…”

Section: The Bacille Calmette-guérin (Bcg) Vaccinementioning

confidence: 99%

Childhood Immunization and COVID-19: An Early Narrative Review

Berić-Stojšić

Kalabalik-Hoganson

Rizzolo

et al. 2020

Front. Public Health

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The COVID-19 pandemic has evolved into arguably the largest global public health crisis in recent history-especially in the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or an effective anti-viral treatment. As reported, the virus seems to less commonly infect children and causing less severe symptoms among infected children. This narrative review provides an inclusive view of scientific hypotheses, logical derivation, and early analyses that substantiate or refute such conjectures. At the completion of a relatively less restrictive search of this evolving topic, 13 articles-all published in 2020, were included in this early narrative review. Directional themes arising from the identified literature imply the potential relationship between childhood vaccination and COVID-19-either based on the potential genomic and immunological protective effects of heterologous immunity, or based on observational associations of cross-immunity among vaccines and other prior endemic diseases. Our review suggests that immune response to the SARS-CoV-2 virus in children is different than in adults, resulting in differences in the levels of severity of symptoms and outcomes of the disease in different age groups. Further clinical investigations are warranted of at least three childhood vaccines: BCG, MMR, and HEP-A for their potential protective role against the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

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“…Several ecological studies did suggest the potential protective effect of the universal BCG vaccination program on reducing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]; some also implied that different BCG strains might vary in their protective ability [14]. In contrast, the inverse relation between COVID-19 disease burden and BCG vaccination was not observed by others [15,16]. However, these results are based on epidemiological data and have inherent biases [17,18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Severity and Neonatal BCG Vaccination among Young Population in Taiwan

Chang

Wang

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Background: Data have not been reported to explore the relation between COVID-19 severity and BCG vaccination status at the individual patient level. Methods: Taiwan has a nationwide neonatal BCG vaccination program that was launched in 1965. The Taiwan Centers for Disease Control established a web-based National Immunization Information System (NISS) in 2003 and included all citizens’ BCG vaccination records in NISS for those born after 1985. We identified COVID-19 Taiwanese patients born after 1985 between 21 January and 19 March 2021. Study participants were further classified into ages 4–24 years (birth year 1996–2016) and 25–33 years (birth year 1986–1995). We described their clinical syndrome defined by the World Health Organization and examined the relation between the COVID-19 severity and BCG vaccination status. Results: In the 4–24 age group, among 138 BCG vaccinated individuals, 80.4% were asymptomatic or had mild disease, while 17.4% had moderate disease, 1.5% had severe disease, and 0.7% had acute respiratory distress syndrome but none of them died. In contrast, all 6 BCG unvaccinated individuals in this age group experienced mild illness. In the 25–33 age group, moderate disease occurred in 14.2% and severe disease occurred in 0.9% of the 106 patients without neonatal BCG vaccination records, as compared to 19.2% had moderate disease and none had severe or critical disease of the 78 patients with neonatal BCG vaccination records. Conclusions: Our finding indicated that BCG immunization might not relate to COVID-19 severity in the young population.

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COVID-19 Related Mortality: Is the BCG Vaccine Truly Effective?

Cited by 4 publications

References 43 publications

SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the World: An Estimation of the Infected Population and a Measure of How Higher Detection Rates Save Lives

SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the World: An Estimation of the Infected Population and a Measure of How Higher Detection Rates Save Lives

Childhood Immunization and COVID-19: An Early Narrative Review

COVID-19 Severity and Neonatal BCG Vaccination among Young Population in Taiwan

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