COVID 19: Real-time Forecasts of confirmed cases, active cases, and health infrastructure requirements for India and its states using the ARIMA model

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 is an emerging infectious disease which has been declared a Pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11th March 2020. The Indian public health care system is already overstretched, and this pandemic is making things even worse. That is why forecasting cases for India is necessary to meet the future demands of the health infrastructure caused due to COVID-19. Objective: Our study forecasts the confirmed and active cases for COVID-19 until July mid, using time series Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Additionally, we estimated the number of isolation beds, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds and ventilators required for the growing number of COVID-19 patients. Methods: We used ARIMA model for forecasting confirmed and active cases till the 15th July. We used time-series data of COVID-19 cases in India from 14th March to 22nd May. We estimated the requirements for ICU beds as 10%, ventilators as 5% and isolation beds as 85% of the active cases forecasted using the ARIMA model. Results: Our forecasts indicate that India will have an estimated 7,47,772 confirmed cases (95% CI: 493943, 1001601) and 296,472 active cases (95% CI:196820, 396125) by 15th July. While Maharashtra will be the most affected state, having the highest number of active and confirmed cases, Punjab is expected to have an estimated 115 active cases by 15th July. India needs to prepare 2,52,001 isolation beds (95% CI: 167297, 336706), 29,647 ICU beds (95% CI: 19682, 39612), and 14,824 ventilator beds (95% CI: 9841, 19806). Conclusion: Our forecasts show an alarming situation for India, and Maharashtra in particular. The actual numbers can go higher than our estimated numbers as India has a limited testing facility and coverage.

A Study on Survival Scenario of COVID-19 patients in India: An Application of Survival Analysis on patient demographics

“…The district level analysis from a study have shown that 92 districts are in red zones of the disease (Unisa et al, 2020). Mostly these red zones are found in the states Maharashtra nd Gujarat, as predicted by the ARIMA model also in study that the cases will be increasing alarmingly (Tyagi et al, 2020).…”

COVID 19 healthcare facility demand forecasts for rural residents

“…Nonetheless, Tyagi et al . (2020) have warned that actual demand numbers can go higher than estimated healthcare infrastructures.…”

“…The estimated healthcare facilities included the numbers of beds, ICUs, and ventilators required. The required healthcare facility number calculations were following Tyagi et al . (2020).…”

Application of the Integrated Autoregressive Method of Moving Averages for the analysis of series of cases of COVID-19 in Peru

“…Los modelos matemáticos son usados para entender las transiciones epidemiológicas críticas (11)(12)(13)(14), y en los últimos meses, los investigadores han venido empleando métodos matemáticos para poder pronosticar el número de casos de COVID-19 en todo el mundo. El Método Autorregresivo Integrado de Medias Móviles (ARIMA) es el que más se ha utilizado para realizar pronósticos, tal es el caso de los propuestos por Singh RK et al (11) , para Estados Unidos, España, Italia, Francia, Alemania, el Reino Unido, Turquía, Irán, China, Rusia, Brasil, Canadá, Bélgica, los Países Bajos y Suiza; por Ceylan Z (15) , para Italia, España y Francia; por Moftakhar L y Seif M (1) , para Irán; por Benvenuto D et al (16) , para Italia; por Yousaf M et al (17) , para Pakistán; por Hiteshi Tandon (18) y Rishabh Tyagi et al (19) , para India y por Perone G (20) , para Italia.…”