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The current study identifies the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases and its association with meteorological and social variables in Punjab (densely populated province of Pakistan). To identify the COVID-19 propagation, the weekly growth, recovery, and deaths rate have also been calculated. The geographic information system (GIS) has used to determine COVID-19 impacts on gender (male/female), age groups, and causalities over an affected population (km −2 ) for the period of 11th March to 12th August, 2020 in each district of province. Our results show that 43 peak days (where daily positive cases were above 900) have been observed in Punjab during 27th May to 8th July, 2020. The high population density districts, i.e., Lahore and Islamabad, have been affected (five persons per square kilometers) due to COVID-19, whereas the maximum death tolls (> 50 persons per millions) have also been observed in these urban districts. The meteorological variables (temperature, humidity, heat index, and ultraviolet index) show negative significant relationship to basic reproduction number (R0), whereas daily COVID-19 cases are positively correlated to aerosols concentration at 95% confidence level. The government intervention (stringency index) shows a positive impact to reduce the COVID-19 cases over the province. Keeping in view the COVID-19 behavior and climatology of the region, it has been identified that the COVID-19 cases may likely to increase during the dry period (high concentration of aerosols) i.e., October–December, 2020 and post-spring season (April to June), 2021 in urban areas of Pakistan. This study provides an overview on districts vulnerability that would help the policy makers, health agencies to plan their activities to reduce the COVID-19 impacts.
The current study identifies the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases and its association with meteorological and social variables in Punjab (densely populated province of Pakistan). To identify the COVID-19 propagation, the weekly growth, recovery, and deaths rate have also been calculated. The geographic information system (GIS) has used to determine COVID-19 impacts on gender (male/female), age groups, and causalities over an affected population (km −2 ) for the period of 11th March to 12th August, 2020 in each district of province. Our results show that 43 peak days (where daily positive cases were above 900) have been observed in Punjab during 27th May to 8th July, 2020. The high population density districts, i.e., Lahore and Islamabad, have been affected (five persons per square kilometers) due to COVID-19, whereas the maximum death tolls (> 50 persons per millions) have also been observed in these urban districts. The meteorological variables (temperature, humidity, heat index, and ultraviolet index) show negative significant relationship to basic reproduction number (R0), whereas daily COVID-19 cases are positively correlated to aerosols concentration at 95% confidence level. The government intervention (stringency index) shows a positive impact to reduce the COVID-19 cases over the province. Keeping in view the COVID-19 behavior and climatology of the region, it has been identified that the COVID-19 cases may likely to increase during the dry period (high concentration of aerosols) i.e., October–December, 2020 and post-spring season (April to June), 2021 in urban areas of Pakistan. This study provides an overview on districts vulnerability that would help the policy makers, health agencies to plan their activities to reduce the COVID-19 impacts.
Purpose: The study analyzes the growing situation of Covid-19 in Pakistan and highlights the recent scientific and social developments made during this pandemic. The paper highlights the exertions of the government of Pakistan in general and especially the preventing measures taken by the Punjab and Sindh government to fight this pandemic. The paper discusses the emergency preparedness and response to the Covid-19 in Pakistan. Method: This research uses publicly available data to inspect the current situation of epidemic Covid-19 and its preventive measures in Pakistan, especially in Punjab and Sindh province. Besides, documents on the website of the daily situation report of NIH (National Institute of Health), WHO covid-19 dashboard (services and coordination) Ministry of National Health Regulation, different scholarly articles, and already existing world reports have been reviewed and analyzed Main Findings: The outbreak of Covid-19 was experienced first time in December 2019 at Wuhan city of China which spread promptly in China and then all-inclusive in 213 other countries including Australia, Asia, Europe, America, and Pakistan as well. Experts believed that in a developing country like Pakistan, its effects would be devastating. It has caused approximately 2, 862, 664 deaths and affected more than 131, 837, 512 people worldwide, while its statistics are growing fast. However, several steps have been adopted to overcome Covid-19 worldwide. Even, drastic measures were taken with limited resources in Pakistan to curb the growing situation of Covid-19 such as lockdown, awareness campaign, quarantine facilities, special hospitals, and laboratories for testing the virus. Application of the Study: The results of this research help the Pakistani government to make their policies more target-ordinated and systematic to cure this pandemic to restore its vigilance with available resources against Covid-19 and trained human capacities, laboratory networks, policy formulation, and national emergency preparedness. The originality of the Study: This research contributes that confusion and uncertainty between the policies of the federal government and provinces on lockdown measures could lead the thousands of untimely deaths. Experts believed that in a developing country like Pakistan, its effects would be devastating. Despite its limited resources, Pakistan took a stand against an epidemic coronavirus and made it a single-point agenda by all the provinces of Pakistan.
Background: The unprecedented outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) drastically spread worldwide. The study was aimed to articulate the findings of a descriptive and clinical characteristic, also to access the potential risk factors link with the spread of COVID-19. Method: The COVID-19 cases reported through April 30, 2020, were extracted from Balochistan’s COVID-19 Electronic Dashboard. All cases from March to April 2020 were included. The results of the laboratory finding as well as data acquired through COVID-19 Dashboard were cleaned; descriptive exploratory analysis and chi-square were calculated to demonstrate association using Epi- Info. Results: A total of 1381 patient records extracted and screened. Of these, 1218 suspected cases and 1049 confirmed cases contributed to the analysis. Among confirmed cases, 77% (811) were male. The most affected age group was 60 – 69 years (attack rate 1.90/10,000), mean age was 36 ±17.11 SD with age range 2 months-94 years. District Quetta 82% (864) and district Pishin 5% (55) remained the epicenter for high attack rates. Among confirmed cases, a total of 14 deaths occurred for an overall Case fatality rate of 1.33%. The epi surge was peaked around March 19, April 5, and April 24, 2020. Among high-risk personals, those who had contact with infected individuals’ showed a high association of 97% (323/333) than without any contact 87% (221/254). Those who had travel history showed a prevalence of 86% (87/101) than in those who did not 59% (60/104) while those admitted in hospital with comorbid conditions showed a prevalence of 70% (26/37) than in those who did not 13% (6/46). Conclusion: COVID-19 epidemic has spread rapidly in the province. A series of multidimensional public health interventions, a cost-effective surveillance system, and the adoption of safe working practice, awareness sessions are necessary to control the COVID-19 outbreak.
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