COVID-19 infection and risk analysis: a short introduction

Abstract

This work is part of a study about COVID-19 pandemic in Mozambique. Here we reproduce the first part of such study were a general introduction about the background and motivational aspects of COVID-19 in the world is made. Also, the relevance of mathematical and statistical modeling, the concepts of risk, risk analysis and spatial epidemiology are detailed. An introductory briefing on risk measures in epidemiology is performed. In the present work, we deal with risk assessment in epidemiology, we address aspects such as uncertainty and variability, types of risk assessment and its steps, methods, and relevant conditions for the quality of risk assessment. At the moment, the considered data set is still incomplete, only preliminary estimated models and preliminary results were obtained. A continuation of this manuscript will illustrate the models estimated and applied to the modeling of infectious diseases, presenting those with a mathematical and statistical approach to COVID-19 infection. Also, we will present the mapping of diseases. The preliminary results obtained with the provisional data set agree with similar performed studies.