Covid-19 in Colombia's Borderlands and the Western Hemisphere: Adding Instability to a Double Crisis

Abstract

the Colombian leftist rebel group National Liberation Army (ELN) imposed a month-long unilateral ceasefire as a reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic. This came after the Colombian Ministry of Health and Social Protection confirmed the first Covid-19 case in the country in early March. Still in March, one of our civil society informants in the remote region of Catatumbo, located at the border to Venezuela, sent us a picture of a pamphlet issued by Colombia's largest active rebel group. It announced severe "revolutionary punishment" to anyone resisting to the curfew the rebel group imposed, purportedly to contain the spread of the virus. Although this partic-abstract In Colombia's borderlands, the Covid-19 pandemic adds a third dimension to the double crisis of continued insecurity rooted in Colombia's ongoing armed conflict and the humanitarian emergency triggered by Venezuelan mass migration. Exacerbated through the border effect, the Colombian government's border closure and armed groups seeking to capitalize on growing uncertainty pose a severe risk to the country's peace agreement, regional stability, and hemispheric security.

Did Covid‐19 Change Armed Group Governance? Evidence from a Survey of Local Security Authorities in Colombia

“…While scholarship on armed group behaviour has largely assumed that armed group governance is only feasible where such groups have consolidated their control over territory (e.g. Pérez‐Cardona et al, 2022), such areas are ‘neither ungoverned nor ungovernable’ (Risse and Stollenwerk, 2018: 406); indeed, it is precisely in contested areas where armed groups may have the strongest incentives to fill governance gaps to produce gains over rivals (Idler and Hochmuller, 2020; Lee, Walter‐Drop, and Wiesel, 2014; Wolff, 2015; Arias, 2006). To minimise risk of exposure to Covid‐19, the survey was conducted online with follow‐up by telephone.…”

“…During the first months of the Covid‐19 pandemic, scholars and media outlets raised concerns that armed groups would take advantage of the disruptions it caused to expand their control of territory and civilian life (e.g. Angelo, 2020; Barnes and Albarracín, 2020; Idler and Hochmuller, 2020; Furlan, 2020). Emergencies are thought to create power vacuums that provide armed groups with the opportunity to demonstrate their credibility and legitimacy in comparison to the state (Furlan, 2020; Koehnlein and Koren, 2021).…”

“…We use an original survey of local security officials in areas of Colombia contested by multiple armed groups to shed light on this question. Due to the sophistication of the country's illicit economies and the persistence of armed group competition, Colombia is a particularly valuable case to examine: the risk that armed actors might ‘make a power grab’ during the pandemic was thought to be ‘especially acute’ (Angelo, 2020: 3; see also Gomez 2020; Idler and Hochmuller, 2020; Zulver, 2020). It is also a case in which both political and criminal armed groups have sought to govern civilian populations.…”

Urban Insecurity, Contested Governance, and Civic Resistance at the Colombia-Venezuela Border

“…Illicit economic activities allowed VNSAs to adapt with ease even in times of crisis. And there have indeed been many crises at the border, ranging from diplomatic tensions in the mid-2000s following the detention of a FARC leader in Venezuela (see Jiménez Aguilar 2008) to multiple border closures (for instance in 2020, when both countries closed their borders as a reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic; see Idler & Hochmüller 2020).…”

Influence of administrative boundary on land use change in the cross-boundary area of urban agglomerations: A case study of Tongzhou-Wuqing-Langfang

“…种空间变化过程、 动态和模式 [13][14] 。城乡建设用地内 部包括不透水面(impervious surface area， ISA)、 绿 地、 水体等覆被类型， 其中 ISA 是城市扩张中建设用 地利用强度变化的直观表征和重要衡量因子 [15] ， 可 以用来观察城市群之间的不平衡土地利用现象 [16] 。 缓解交界地区的发展不平衡， 推进城市规划和 土地利用政策的统一制定， 对于城市群一体化发展 具有重要意义， 但目前对交界地区土地利用变化的 研究较少。已有交界地区研究主要集中在 3 个领 域： ① 测度行政边界效应的强弱及其影响。省域、 城市群等不同尺度的研究显示， 行政边界效应普遍 存在， 并且在不同发展阶段其影响经济发展、 土地 利用变化的程度大小不一 [17][18] 。它主要通过财政支 出和非农业人口等中间经济社会变量间接作用于 城市用地规模 [19] 。行政边界会影响经济发展差异 的缩小速度， 从而阻碍区域经济一体化进程 [20] 。随 着阻抗系数的降低， 行政边界效应可以从屏蔽效应 逐渐向中介效应转化 [21] 。需要指出的是， 学者们大 多将交界地区的单个区县视为均质经济体， 行政边 界在研究中多转化为 "跨省/不跨省" 等虚拟变量而 非空间地理要素。这一范式难以揭示行政边界效 应在中微观尺度各种力量相互作用中的影响。② 讨论交界地区的跨区管控模式与现实挑战。欧美 跨国境的区域开发合作较为常见， 法律体系的建构 和多元合作组织的作用得到了较多关注 [22][23][24] 。中国 学者倾向于讨论行政性的跨省界规划管控措施， 如 京津冀交界区、 长三角交界区等 [25][26] 。③ 探索交界 地区经济发展、 人口流动、 土地利用和生态景观格 局等方面的空间分异现象及影响因素 [27] 。交界地 区可能由于跨界要素流动和资源溢出而创造收入、 就业， 甚至成为区域开发的热点， 也可能因为不安 全风险的增加或政策倾斜、 地方保护主义等因素导 致边缘地区的人口下降 [28][29][30] 。 京津冀城市群协同发展是中国重要的区域性 国家战略， 是疏解北京非首都功能的重要手段。随 着顶层设计的完成与实践深化， 京津冀协同在产业 发展、 空间布局和增长动力上的深度约束逐渐显 露， 其核心根源在于 3 地发展阶段不同和资源禀赋 差异悬殊 [31] 。通州-武清-廊坊(通武廊)地区位于 突出问题 [32][33][34] 布中的距离衰减效应 [36] 。本文采用 ArcGIS 10.5…”