Covid-19: How the Brazil variant took hold of South America

Taylor, Luke

doi:10.1136/bmj.n1227

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Death cases in Brazil resulting from the coronavirus are expected to rise based on the analysis of this study. This result supports Taylor [ 53 ] in which this report estimated that almost 400000 Brazilians have died from COVID-19, indicating a 13% of the world's total COVID-19 deaths, which is even more than the country's entire AIDS epidemic.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Forecasting the Severity of COVID-19 Pandemic Amidst the Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Adoption of ARIMA Model

Cai

Sampene

Agyeman

et al. 2022

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

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Currently, the global report of COVID-19 cases is around 110 million, and more than 2.43 million related death cases as of February 18, 2021. Viruses continuously change through mutation; hence, different virus of SARS-CoV-2 has been reported globally. The United Kingdom (UK), South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria are the countries from which these emerged variants have been notified and now spreading globally. Therefore, these countries have been selected as a research sample for the present study. The datasets analyzed in this study spanned from March 1, 2020, to January 31, 2021, and were obtained from the World Health Organization website. The study used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast coronavirus incidence in the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria. ARIMA models with minimum Akaike Information Criterion Correction (AICc) and statistically significant parameters were chosen as the best models in this research. Accordingly, for the new confirmed cases, ARIMA (3,1,14), ARIMA (0,1,11), ARIMA (1,0,10), and ARIMA (1,1,14) models were chosen for the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria, respectively. Also, the model specification for the confirmed death cases was ARIMA (3,0,4), ARIMA (0,1,4), ARIMA (1,0,7), and ARIMA (Brown); models were selected for the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria, respectively. The results of the ARIMA model forecasting showed that if the required measures are not taken by the respective governments and health practitioners in the days to come, the magnitude of the coronavirus pandemic is expected to increase in the study’s selected countries.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Forecasting the Severity of COVID-19 Pandemic Amidst the Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Adoption of ARIMA Model

Cai

Sampene

Agyeman

et al. 2022

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

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“…Moreover, this is the first report of an animal case infected by the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) P.1 (Gamma) worldwide. Such a VOC caused a dramatic health crisis in Brazil and other countries of South America [ 13 – 15 ] due to its high infectivity and immune escape capacity [ 16 ]. We highlight that many infections caused by VOC P.1 were registered in Bahia at the time of the cat infection, which moved the state health department to suspend non-essential trips [ 17 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, we observed hematological disturbances related to FeLV infection. In general, such pathological signs are accompanied by immunosuppression [ 13 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

First description of a multisystemic and lethal SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern P.1 (Gamma) infection in a FeLV-positive cat

Carneiro

Farias

Pinheiro

et al. 2022

Virol J

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Background Phylogenetic studies indicate bats as original hosts of SARS-CoV-2. However, it remains unclear whether other animals, including pets, are crucial in the spread and maintenance of COVID-19 worldwide. Methods In this study, we analyzed the first fatal case of a SARS-CoV-2 and FeLV co-infection in an eight-year-old male cat. We carried out a clinical evaluation and several laboratory analyses. Results As main results, we observed an animal presenting severe acute respiratory syndrome and lesions in several organs, which led to the animal’s death. RT-qPCR analysis showed a SARS-CoV-2 as the causative agent. The virus was detected in several organs, indicating a multisystemic infection. The virus was found in a high load in the trachea, suggesting that the animal may have contribute to the transmission of the virus. The whole-genome sequencing revealed an infection by SARS-CoV-2 Gamma VOC (P.1), and any mutations indicating host adaptation were observed. Conclusion Our data show that FeLV-positive cats are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and raise questions about the potential of immunocompromised FeLV-positive cats to act as a reservoir for SARS-CoV-2 new variants.

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“…Gamma was first identified in Manaus, Brazil, in November 2020 and is another variant of concern for WHO. At the time of writing it remains the dominant variant in South America 10…”

Section: Gammamentioning

confidence: 99%

Covid-19: How many variants are there, and what do we know about them?: Video 1

Mahase¹

2021

BMJ

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Covid-19: How the Brazil variant took hold of South America

Abstract: Brazil has long been a pariah in the pandemic, but the consequences of its failure to control SARS-CoV-2 are manifesting across Latin America, writes Luke Taylor

Cited by 10 publications

References 8 publications

Forecasting the Severity of COVID-19 Pandemic Amidst the Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Adoption of ARIMA Model

Forecasting the Severity of COVID-19 Pandemic Amidst the Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Adoption of ARIMA Model

First description of a multisystemic and lethal SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern P.1 (Gamma) infection in a FeLV-positive cat

Covid-19: How many variants are there, and what do we know about them?: Video 1

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